Disastrous_Ball2542 t1_jd2h47l wrote on March 21, 2023 at 11:11 AM

Reply to comment by mjrossman in AI displacing jobs is a red herring, how we self-organize is the more fundamental trend by mjrossman

It is theoretical bc currently (and for foreseeable future) value multiples are more affected by interest rates than AI or any other technology

For purely speculative tech like AI, valuations don't matter, momentum and money flow does ie. Pets.com during dot com bubble

mjrossman OP t1_jd2hn4a wrote on March 21, 2023 at 11:17 AM

are we absolutely sure that the average multiple during high rate environments is going to stabilize at a minimum, and during a zero-rate moment in the not-too-distant future, are average multiples going to reach a maximum because they must be dictated by retail speculation as the buyer of last resort? I'm willing to argue no to both. we're going to observe disruption that supercedes the macro sentiment.

Disastrous_Ball2542 t1_jd2hvi3 wrote on March 21, 2023 at 11:19 AM

So you're basically the guy that was saying amazon.com will change the world during the dotcom bubble

And I'm saying it will be 10 to 30 years before you will be able to say "I told you so"

mjrossman OP t1_jd2i3m5 wrote on March 21, 2023 at 11:22 AM

no, I'm the guy saying that books can easily sell online because they're nonperishable, dense, and can be packaged in a garage. and regardless of the chatgpt hype, we're literally days after the discovery that someone can package LLMs that hit the same benchmarks from their garage.

Disastrous_Ball2542 t1_jd2ifp0 wrote on March 21, 2023 at 11:25 AM

I'm saying we are many years and at least one business cycle away from these LLMs having any economical impact other than through pure speculation while you say it will be sooner based on what?

mjrossman OP t1_jd2lq7e wrote on March 21, 2023 at 11:59 AM

the training & inference costs have dropped to triple digits and a phone app, respectively.
given the preexisting codebase for distributed training, some non-negligible fraction of the billions of GPUs are going to be volunteered in an exascale fashion not unlike Folding@Home.
given that many business processes have already been articulated & opensourced in natural language, effectively any SME has the means to finetune their own nuances & SOPs to drastically lower training costs and turnover for new employees. this is a multimodal trend, any apprentice in the world can snap a photo of what they're doing and ask an LLM what to do next. eventually, it will be video if that modality can be inferred on mobile hardware.
admission to the bar and license might be the bottleneck for lawyers, but it is no longer the same bottleneck for incorporation and other legal services
given how much operational budget in hospitals goes to administrative work, I'm curious to see how the people deal with their medical bills in the next couple of years.
we haven't even confronted garage-tier sentiment analysis. I genuinely wonder how many markets get arbitraged due to this, starting with social media dogfooding.
what's the necessary cost of mainstream journalism to the general public? I'm sure you'd agree that should be weighed. same as 6), what's newsworthy & why should it be published by a corporate media company?
on the tail-end to this, legislature & lobbying costs just got profoundly cheaper. also cheaper to pick apart pork-barrel or other inconsistencies therein.

these are just a few downstream effects. and I'm leaving out the parallel gains in manufacturing automation, machine vision, crowdsourcing, etc.

Disastrous_Ball2542 t1_jd2vzrg wrote on March 21, 2023 at 1:28 PM

All speculation and no possible valuations aka we are in the dotcom bubble phase not the FAANG valuation phase