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grundar t1_jdl5z0t wrote

Reply to comment by Fuzzers in IPCC chart says Solar PV and Wind Turbines are best way to achieve Deep, Rapid, and Low Cost emission cuts before 2030. by DisasterousGiraffe

> The EIA LCOE 2022

EIA's projections have changed substantially since 2022.

Compare their projections to 2050 from 2022 (p.15) and 2023 (p.10) (reference case):

  • Solar: up 50% (1,200-1,800TWh)
  • Wind: up 50% (700-1,100TWh)
  • Gas: down 40% (1,800-1,200TWh)
  • Coal: down 40% (500-300TWh)

EIA projections for renewable energy have been consistently revised way up, year after year:

  • 2018 AEO: 1,600TWh renewables, 3,100TWh gas+coal
  • 2020 AEO: 2,100TWh renewables, 2,700TWh gas+coal
  • 2022 AEO: 2,300TWh renewables, 2,300TWh gas+coal
  • 2023 AEO: ~3,300TWh renewables, 1,500TWh gas+coal

5 years ago, the EIA was projecting fossil fuels would out-generate renewables 2:1 in 2050; now, that ratio is reversed in their projections. How likely is it they've finally caught up with changes in power generation and won't revise that again?

For reference, wind+solar+battery are 140% of net new capacity over the last 5 years, and are a similar fraction of net new kWh generated. New gas is indeed being added, but coal is being retired even faster, so net fossil capacity in the US has been declining for a decade.

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