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Surur t1_iufcrzi wrote

This is mainly because gas has become very, very expensive.

From the article:

> Europe has seen skyrocketing gas prices since the drop in Russian gas exports, with spot prices on the Netherlands-based Title Transfer Facility (TTF) rising to an average €134 ($135.15)/MWh so far this year. Rystad forecasts prices will stabilize at around €31 per MWh by 2030, which puts the LCOE of existing gas-fired plants closer to €150 per MWh.

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AJ_Gaming125 t1_iuft9xv wrote

Just a question, but could the war with Ukraine cause gas prices to go up to such a degree that governments decide to start replacing gas with renewable just because it's too expensive? Or are we gonna be stuck with the same because they don't want to put a little bit of money into it?

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Surur t1_iuftqza wrote

> Just a question, but could the war with Ukraine cause gas prices to go up to such a degree that governments decide to start replacing gas with renewable just because it's too expensive?

It's definitely happening, but not just renewables, but any source (e.g. coal, nuclear)

For consumers, their only choice is home solar, and that is seeing a massive boom.

Overall the war in Ukraine is going to accelerate the move to renewables and heatpumps greatly.

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AJ_Gaming125 t1_iufu5hz wrote

Let's hope so. Maybe a war might actually help the planet in the stupid way for once.

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x925 t1_iuhfc26 wrote

When will we see at home nuclear plants? I don't think it's fair that only corporations can own them just because it's "unsafe" or some nonsense.

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Surur t1_iuhg1e9 wrote

I'm not a supporter of nuclear energy lol, but those people have advocated for neighbourhood-based pebble-bed reactors lol.

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FearLeadsToAnger t1_iuhgl3j wrote

Who isn't a supporters of nuclear in 2022? What's your thinking?

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Surur t1_iuhhkur wrote

It's very simple - nuclear energy has very long lead times (often a decade), is very expensive, and relies on a stable society for its entire existence, something which Ukraine and USA shows us is not guaranteed.

It's also centralised, vs many renewables which can be generated at home or at the community level.

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HoriOri t1_iuhjfoo wrote

Those are very good and well thought out reasons. However, it does mean that much of the world will be burning gas for baseload power till we can get some decent buffers so we can use renewables entirely.

I personally don't think we have the time left, we needed to throw everything we've got at this problem 40 years ago.

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Cynical_Cabinet t1_iugg16i wrote

Every country that has a government that isn't owned by the gas companies is already replacing gas and coal with renewables, because renewables have already been cheaper for a few years.

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iwoketoanightmare t1_iuhgdce wrote

Solar on its own is cheap, Solar with a battery is a bit more expensive. The problem is replacing a base load orange with an apple doesn’t always do the job. Solar is great but only 50% of the time unless you add that second component.

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viderfenrisbane t1_iuhvge4 wrote

That was my question reading this, what’s solar + grid scale storage cost? Isn’t that a more important number?

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iwoketoanightmare t1_iuiln4p wrote

On a small scale such as my home, the battery side of things was 1.5x what the solar was. So if Solar is $20,000 installed, you're looking at another $30,000 for the storage.

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Northman67 t1_iuhnctq wrote

The way it's looking the war with Ukraine is going to shut down Russian oil production when the pipelines back up because they have to constantly keep it flowing or it will freeze (it's winter hits in Siberia...... so soon) and destroy their equipment potentially bursting pipelines all across Russia. Reportedly the last time this happened it took them 10 years to get their stuff back online and they didn't have a disastrous shutdown like it's looking like they're going to have this time. Also last time they had plenty of Western oil experts to help with the process and that's not going to be available this time. If that happens then the entire supply of oil in the world changes and yes the price is going to go way way up. But the oil company pigs in the Saudi Arabian pigs are going to be super happy about that they're going to be making bank!!!!!!

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No-Owl9201 t1_iujnbtl wrote

The winners from price hikes are all major oil exporters including Saudi, Canada, Iraq, UAE, USA, Norway, Kuwait, Nigeria, Brazil, Libya, Angola, Oman etc..... It's an ill wind etc etc....

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mark-haus t1_iuhcrg8 wrote

Already happening, after a lot of european governments made emergency orders for new LNG terminals to replace some Russian piped gas they went on a renewables spending spree.

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13Wayfarer t1_iuiompc wrote

We often a tendency when narratives are put out they done so in a silo. Why the statements are true in isolation they often ignore or do not consider possible solutions that maybe possible now or may come out of the backrooms in the short term or long term. Questions to be asked.

1- Can the oil-gas deficit be replaced from other sources and if yes how quickly and how cost effective?

2-Can the demand for oil-gas be reduced? Can they consume more effeciently? Can they source hydrocarbons from another source?

3- Can they substitute for oil and gas? How fast is green coming on? How much back tracking on green for the sort term tide things over gas-oil-nuclear?

4- What are the Boffins doing in the backrooms?

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n3w4cc01_1nt t1_iufxthj wrote

but not 10x more expensive in other places like the usa. it's like 3.50 nationally which is about the same it was in 2008 ($3.27) but with inflation it's actually cheaper than then. so unless it's higher than 4.51 in the us the consumer is still purchasing at a better rate.

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lightscameracrafty t1_iugewcp wrote

That took a Herculean effort by the Biden admin tho, and there’s no guarantee OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, is going to play ball again.

Besides it’s an apples to oranges comparison: solar is a technology while gas is a finite commodity. The first is only going to get cheaper as it scales and evolves, while the former is only going to get more expensive. That’s why the writing’s on the wall for carbon energy.

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dramaking37 t1_iuhx5zd wrote

It's only cheaper because one is more expensive?? Thanks for the tip. Even if it is transient you're going to be better off on long term averages than demand spikes constantly.

If you live in the United States Texas's inability to plan for a freeze ended up costing everyone. Your rate increases are still paying for that debacle.

Solar gives you certainty that some dumb asshole politician in Texas doesn't end up costing you thousands of extra dollars because they don't want to plan for extreme weather.

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Achillor22 t1_iujlpos wrote

Gas is also only going to continue to become more expensive while solar will only get cheaper.

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