Redvolition t1_iw2pfhf wrote on November 12, 2022 at 2:30 PM

Reply to comment by RobleyTheron in The CEO of OpenAI had dropped hints that GPT-4, due in a few months, is such an upgrade from GPT-3 that it may seem to have passed The Turing Test by lughnasadh

Problem with your analysis is that you don't need anything resembling human or mammal intelligence to reach AGI in the sense of outperforming humans. This is akin to thinking that you need to simulate bird flight with flapping wings in order to fly an airplane.

Even if AGI does require massive breakthroughs, proto-AGI and TAI would already dramatically change the human experience, including economic and political landscapes. They would also speed up the scientific discovery cycles, further compounding into higher chances of AGI.

We already have Oriol Vinyals on record expecting AGI in 5 to 10 years, Andrej Karpathy predicting that soon we will produce blockbuster movies, such as Avatar, talking to our phones, and John Carmack predicting 55 to 60% chance of AGI by 2030.

RobleyTheron t1_iw2uui0 wrote on November 12, 2022 at 3:13 PM

All you have to do to litmus test this is look at the billions and billions of dollars being spent on self-driving cars. These systems are being managed by the largest, and most innovative companies, often with the smartest people in the field.. and they're all failing (minus Cruise and Waymo's incremental improvement).

Argo with billions of dollars invested, just collapsed last week.

If we were 5 to 10 years away, and the current architecture works, those companies would be capable of driving in more than two cities. If you can't pattern match images in a self-driving car, you are decades away from from even contemplating proto-AGI.