Submitted by tonymmorley t3_yvske7 in Futurology
Comments
Desconocido1111 t1_iwg34oq wrote
The world is better now than it has ever been. The world needs to build some self esteem.
vorpal_potato t1_iwhvhuy wrote
That's one of the article's three theses. (The others are that it still sucks in a lot of ways, and that we can and should keep on improving it. Not exactly the hottest and spiciest of takes, but boringly reasonable.)
intentionalfuture t1_iwgxhwz wrote
True in some ways, not in others. The state of democracy is worse than it was 20 years ago. A lower percentage of people are living in democracies and those democracies are on average less free than they were 20 years ago. Trust in public institutions has been declining almost everywhere since 2008.
Income and wealth inequality between countries decreased, but within countries it has increased almost everywhere.
Global warming is as much an issue as it was 30 years ago. Indeed, we are on track for some the more pessimistic scenarios predicted decades ago. But it's not the worst scenario, so I guess we have that going for us.
But the key issue, which is not addressed by either Mr. Roser's self-congratulatory article or your comment, is whether our current trajectory (or small adjustments to it) are sustainable or not. If anything it is suggesting you can fix the world by just donating to the appropriate charities.
Which reveals the motivation behind all these carefully selected data points. They are meant to legitimize the current power structures, thereby ensuring that the negative trends we are seeing will continue.
New_Parsley6211 t1_iwhawix wrote
“Better” is very loose and generous, only because we have modern technology. All it means is more people can stay alive and placated to endure servitude under the merging, universal corporate despotism. And that’s not fear-monger. Rampant greed is being traced and associated to the ongoing, record high inflation rate. Gas, pollution and micro plastics is currently ravaging global climate and environments.
To say “everything is better now” is relevant only in comparison to the past. The stakes and threats currently, right now, is higher and more dangerous than anything humanity has experienced in the past.
“Everything is better now.” Everything is more volatile and dangerous now than it ever has been.
Test19s t1_iwhfpng wrote
Is it really better than 2019? Pre-COVID and pre-War?
Desconocido1111 t1_iwihfzt wrote
What war? This conflict in Ukraine is not the fight of anyone other than Russia and Ukraine.
Test19s t1_iwihmjs wrote
The war worsened inflation by interrupting energy, grain, and critical element trade involving Russia and Ukraine.
Desconocido1111 t1_iwijp4h wrote
This is not the worst situation to ever take place. There were two major continental conflicts which took place in Africa during the 90’s and 2000’s. The wide ranging impact of these conflicts is largely ignored.
Our world is not an easy place to live. Just because there is a war in the (marginal) west, please don’t think that this is the worst conflict that has happened in recent times.
The world is currently not a better place than 2019, and will take some time to recover from the mismanaging of the COVID pandemic in the US and in Europe. Similar to how it took time to recover after WW1 and WW2.
No-Community-7210 t1_iwgmif4 wrote
Wtf are you on about, this world is a dystopia on the verge of apocalypse.
Douglas_Fresh t1_iwhjk1o wrote
Get off the internet and go outside.
No-Community-7210 t1_iwiml48 wrote
To do what, look for sand so i can bury my head?
Skinny-Fetus t1_iwhximz wrote
Actual evidence says otherwise.
No-Community-7210 t1_iwim3kt wrote
I would like to see the imagined evidence you use as coping mechanism
Josvan135 t1_iwjysa8 wrote
>the verge of apocalypse
Actually, by most scientific measures we've dodged apocalyptic climate change pretty handily at this point.
Assuming nothing much changes on our current trajectory (i.e. The current market supported pace of renewable adoption and other pricing/security induced energy changes) the world will warm somewhere between 1.7-1.9 degrees Celsius.
That will lead to greater instability in weather patterns, more extreme weather events, etc, but Human society will persist without major global scale collapse, and much of the world will experience only mild to moderate disruptions.
>this world is a dystopia
How do you classify a dystopia and what are you comparing it to?
By every measure we've ever conceived of, the world today is richer, healthier, better fed, better educated, more democratic, more equal, and generally better off than at literally any other time in human history.
bogglingsnog t1_iwjlt3u wrote
People only think that when all they consume is crappy American news, its mostly mental junk food that feeds on your fears.
No-Community-7210 t1_iwjsh6x wrote
No im pretty sure U.N reports, among a countless other trusted sources, paint a much bleaker picture of what objective reality is like than the trash american news.
[deleted] t1_iwgqa5i wrote
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darealjbleezy t1_iwh06if wrote
Not for you apparently
Naskyaa t1_iwggpk9 wrote
Isn't it basically what Zen Buddhism is about when it comes to thinking reality ? Non-dualism in thought ; non-dualism applied to thinking. Very useful ; requires and improves mental agility, all the while being more adequate to think/describe a forever changing world made of subjectively cut-out shapes. Not only poetic, but also practical.
tonymmorley OP t1_iwfxkmu wrote
Want to learn more about progress studies? Dive into "The Progress Dashboard" for heaps of resources.
Building a better future for humanity requires understanding that civilization has made enormous progress over the last 200 years. Child mortality fell from 40% to 3.7% in 200 years, and life expectancy and average global wealth have grown enormously. We can't build a better future for civilization without understanding human progress, while also keeping at the forefront of the mind, "progress forward isn't progress completed."
To quote Hans Rosling in his seminal 2018 book Factfulness,
>
"The solution is not to balance out all the negative news with more positive news. That would just risk creating a self-deceiving, comforting, misleading bias in the other direction. It would be as helpful as balancing too much sugar with too much salt. It would make things more exciting, but maybe even less healthy. A solution that works for me is to persuade myself to keep two thoughts in my head at the same time.
>
>
It seems that when we hear someone say things are getting better, we think they are also saying “don’t worry, relax” or even “look away.” But when I say things are getting better, I am not saying those things at all. I am certainly not advocating looking away from the terrible problems in the world. I am saying that things can be both bad and better. Think of the world as a premature baby in an incubator. The baby’s health status is extremely bad and her breathing, heart rate, and other important signs are tracked constantly so that changes for better or worse can quickly be seen.
>
>
After a week, she is getting a lot better. On all the main measures, she is improving, but she still has to stay in the incubator because her health is still critical. Does it make sense to say that the infant’s situation is improving? Yes. Absolutely. Does it make sense to say it is bad? Yes, absolutely. Does saying “things are improving” imply that everything is fine, and we should all relax and not worry? No, not at all. Is it helpful to have to choose between bad and improving? Definitely not. It’s both. It’s both bad and better. Better, and bad, at the same time. That is how we must think about the current state of the world."
louieanderson t1_iwhqm8f wrote
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Is "progress studies" a major or certificate from an accredited educational institution and if so do you hold such qualification?
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If so what is the curriculum and what institution grants such titles?
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Are you paid to promote content such as you have submitted here?
tonymmorley OP t1_iwimf6a wrote
**Note, replacement comment, my previous comment was auto-removed due to a linking rule.**
Hey, thanks for hanging in there, apologies for the delay.
By way of introduction, "hi, I'm Tony Morley", a Canadian, Australian dual national based in Australia. I'm an independent progress studies communicator, passionate about researching and communicating global living standards. I receive and have not received any external funding for my work, with the exception of funding raised to support a children's book I'm writing, "Human Progress for Beginners." (Rules won't let me link, but you can Google it)
With that being said, I would love to be grant funded to focus on progress studies; I've got some excellent project ideas. For the last two years, I've been working full time 12h/d 5-6d/w building out a major energy project. Any additional time is focused on family, (three little ones under 9), progress studies, research, and communications, with a crushing book deadline due in January 2023. There is no "major or certificate" in progress studies, but it would be brilliant if there were. Hopefully, one doesn't need a "certificate" to research, think and communicate on a subject of deep interest.
You can find me and or my work here,
Facebook: Human Progress Facebook Group (Rules won't let me link)
Twitter: @ tonymmorley (Rules won't let me link)
The Progress Dashboard: A database of progress studies resources:
Some of my latest op-eds can be found here.
My principal vocation is in energy project management (10y conventional and 4y renewable), with experience operating across over a dozen countries on three continents, from the Canadian high-arctic to the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the remote desert of Saudi Arabia.
I hope that helps, mate; if you would like to know more, please reach out any time. Have a great day, and thank you kindly for engaging.
louieanderson t1_iwirkon wrote
> I receive and have not received any external funding for my work, with the exception of funding raised to support a children's book I'm writing, "Human Progress for Beginners." (Rules won't let me link, but you can Google it)
Yeah that's weird cause you tried to link to a gofundme, but Tyler Cowen, the co-creator of "progress studies" in your Atlantic article awarded you, or someone else with your name, a grant to write a children's book.
Also you are apparently a "fellow" what exactly does that mean?
tonymmorley OP t1_iwit1pi wrote
Where do you see "fellow"?
louieanderson t1_iwit6y7 wrote
>"Tony Morley, Progress Studies fellow, from Ngunnawal, Australia, to write the first optimistic children’s book on progress."
tonymmorley OP t1_iwivvgd wrote
Hmm, I believe they are using "fellow" to denote a "fellow" of the progress studies, human progress movement. Although it is still a very unstructured "movement". Aside from that, I'm not formally part of any organisation. Again, not that I wouldn't accept to be, I just am not currently. Hope that helps.
tonymmorley OP t1_iwit8x6 wrote
Yeah, I've received grant money from Cowen for the book. It's been very helpful, but such a long hard process. What I thought would take 6 months, has taken 2 years.
louieanderson t1_iwiu1nb wrote
Just to be clear, you don't see an issue with failing to disclose the person and "field" you are promoting was invented by a sponsor that has no academic rigor or basis behind it who gave you money that you regularly link to, in this 3 year old ourworldindata article? Like if I came to you on an energy project as a thetan specialist to harmonize your energies cause a guy on a blog said so you wouldn't vet it?
That's not a little odd?
tonymmorley OP t1_iwivbd3 wrote
I apologise, but I don't exactly follow your line of questioning. But I've certainly been very open, honest and transparent. I don't think I've "failed to disclose" anything, most especially where there has been a requirement. Last time I checked there is no disclosure requirement for posting on Reddit.
I'm a little disappointed. I've engaged here in good faith, and I don't believe you're owed much more than what you have asked, and not even that really.
louieanderson t1_iwiymkr wrote
Progress studies is not real, by your standard I have a masters in progress studies. It's made up by a guy who made a lot of money from selling a website and a libertarian leaning economist. It's not even prescriptive, so what the world (allegedly) is great, there's no mechanism. Nothing is actionable and it can't be critically reviewed, it's just free market propaganda.
How can you even be an expert you work like 60-70 hours a week with a family?
tonymmorley OP t1_iwj59ko wrote
"How can you even be an expert you work like 60-70 hours a week with a family?"
I'm not an expert; I'm a passionate and well-knowledged person on the subject, with a joy for writing and communicating on progress. As I continue in the field, I'm gaining knowledge and working on what I have to say and how I want to say it. I'm slowly building out my position over these years since 2018 and looking forward to the future.
Unless you would like to change to future tone of your engagement, I might excuse myself from further dialogue. At this point, you're not really engaging in good faith, and you're pre-supposing a good deal about people and motives without regard. I don't believe you're approaching me or the subject with respect or an open mind, and looking for malice and a fight, for which I am not.
Happy to hear from you again, mate. Have a great afternoon wherever you are.
tonymmorley OP t1_iwi4uq0 wrote
Slightly tied up at the moment, will comment in approximately an hour.
louieanderson t1_iwi5r7q wrote
I could answer what certifications I hold or what I do for a living in one post without reference.
tonymmorley OP t1_iwi60yo wrote
I'm not deflecting, I'd just like to give you a complete and transparent response, and I need a smidge more time. Just entering a meeting. Hope that helps mate.
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ImperatorScientia t1_iwhccnb wrote
For those who say it’s awful, my question is always the same: compared to what?
walter10h t1_iwhqa4w wrote
Compared to when my parents were young and could afford TWO WHOLE HOUSES plus travel, on a teacher's and a fresh out of college agronomy major wages. I'm in tech and still rent.
4354574 t1_iwiov73 wrote
This issue does not affect the developing world, however. It is bad but it’s not irreversible and it is confined to the developed world, and then only part of it, North America.
walter10h t1_iwjeysj wrote
I am from the developing world. It's shit over there. Everyone's falling for authoritarian governments masking as egalitarian. It's not all that great here in America, but at least it's a bit more livable. A bit...
4354574 t1_iwjgtbq wrote
The data shows that there are more democracies than ever except just ten years ago, despite the notorious examples of Russia and Hungary and wannabe Erdogan. And Bolsonasshole, who governs 217 million people, just lost the election in Brazil to a liberal opponent. It turns out the mighty CCP rules a country whose economy may be 60% smaller than it has been claiming, meaning it is a long way from challenging the USA and not the behemoth we thought.
The craziest and Trumpiest candidates in the American midterms lost to more moderate opponents and the Democrats retained control of the Senate in a stunning success for the ruling party in the midterms.
The destruction of Vladimir Putin will fill autocrats everywhere with fear. If he can fall or be severely weakened, who is next? Already people in the West are seeing that Tibet is Ukraine, Xinjiang is Ukraine, Hong Kong and Taiwan are Ukraine. That and basic logistical security are two reasons we are trying to disengage from China economically.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-democracies-autocracies-row?country=~OWID_WRL
walter10h t1_iwjy1n4 wrote
Thanks man. I needed a dose of reality.
4354574 t1_iwjzbbc wrote
It's fine. A lot of people simply don't know these things. I recommend Stephen Pinker's 'Enlightenment Now' lecture on YouTube where he goes over a list of the many things that have gotten better and also why we think they haven't. The media doesn't come off too well :P It's an hour long, but worth it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkPOHB2rRkc&t=3187s
Josvan135 t1_iwjz8ya wrote
So highly localized to your socioeconomic and educational level, in your specific society, among you and your demographic peers?
Because housing affordability is an extremely localized issue that the vast, vast majority of the rest of the world population outside your own personal bubble don't have to deal with.
walter10h t1_iwl4t18 wrote
So now that you've established that, where is housing not an issue at the moment? Serious question.
Actually, scratch that. Why are you trying to invalidate my, as well as the experience of millions? The question that was asked was: Compared to what? And I answered.
What? Did you want me to go on an exhaustive research on housing affordability around the globe to determine how the housing crisis in a lot of the developed world compares to developing nations? Because it doesn't invalidate the problem.
It's already been established that all three statements are true in several ways. It is a subjective answer. What do you want?
vorpal_potato t1_iwhxf7v wrote
Compared to what it could be. For example, malaria is still a huge issue in much of the world -- and it's fixable with 20th century technology, at least in countries that have their basic shit together. The USA used to have a really nasty malaria problem, especially in the South; after the National Malaria Eradication Program (1947–1951), the malaria problem was essentially gone. Some other countries have done the same with even more challenging geography and climate.
FuturologyBot t1_iwfztxz wrote
The following submission statement was provided by /u/tonymmorley:
Want to learn more about progress studies? Dive into "The Progress Dashboard" for heaps of resources.
Building a better future for humanity requires understanding that civilization has made enormous progress over the last 200 years. Child mortality fell from 40% to 3.7% in 200 years, and life expectancy and average global wealth have grown enormously. We can't build a better future for civilization without understanding human progress, while also keeping at the forefront of the mind, "progress forward isn't progress completed."
To quote Hans Rosling in his seminal 2018 book Factfulness,
>
"The solution is not to balance out all the negative news with more positive news. That would just risk creating a self-deceiving, comforting, misleading bias in the other direction. It would be as helpful as balancing too much sugar with too much salt. It would make things more exciting, but maybe even less healthy. A solution that works for me is to persuade myself to keep two thoughts in my head at the same time.
>
>
It seems that when we hear someone say things are getting better, we think they are also saying “don’t worry, relax” or even “look away.” But when I say things are getting better, I am not saying those things at all. I am certainly not advocating looking away from the terrible problems in the world. I am saying that things can be both bad and better. Think of the world as a premature baby in an incubator. The baby’s health status is extremely bad and her breathing, heart rate, and other important signs are tracked constantly so that changes for better or worse can quickly be seen.
>
>
After a week, she is getting a lot better. On all the main measures, she is improving, but she still has to stay in the incubator because her health is still critical. Does it make sense to say that the infant’s situation is improving? Yes. Absolutely. Does it make sense to say it is bad? Yes, absolutely. Does saying “things are improving” imply that everything is fine, and we should all relax and not worry? No, not at all. Is it helpful to have to choose between bad and improving? Definitely not. It’s both. It’s both bad and better. Better, and bad, at the same time. That is how we must think about the current state of the world."
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/yvske7/the_world_is_awful_the_world_is_much_better_the/iwfxkmu/
[deleted] t1_iwg2b8h wrote
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mierdabird t1_iwgjsl0 wrote
theburiedxme t1_iwgyy8j wrote
The world is a beautiful place and i am no longer afraid to die
[deleted] t1_iwgzlro wrote
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[deleted] t1_iwhlh2i wrote
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[deleted] t1_iwhoktd wrote
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Farside-BB t1_iwirocz wrote
The world can be much better, probably not for anyone reading this post, but how many of you are going to sleep tonight hungry? 10%, 811 million, are.
CoastGoat t1_iwjsyvm wrote
Or “Data on current and expected reductions in child mortality rates described in unnecessarily obtuse terms to reconcile odd semantic statements.”
OliverSparrow t1_iwgaw0l wrote
For adolescents, the glass is always half full. Dad stole the rest. The current crop live better than they ever had, but claim stress sand foresee the end of the world in every headline.
fludd121 t1_iwhdml2 wrote
I love the fact that most of the comments here are saying either that the world is awful or that the world is actually quite alright, as though this article isn't specifically saying that both are true and that while we have a long way to go, we've come a long way.