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iikra t1_j0m4ogj wrote

Reply to comment by adam_dorr in Cellular agriculture and other emerging food technologies could release 80% of the worlds farm land currently used for meat and dairy production back to nature by DannyMcDanface1

First, hats off to your several analysis of future disruptive industries, really interesting :)

The Rethink X report on Precision Fermentation is now more than 3 years old.

I would like to know if the current development/cost of production is on track with the 2019 forecast. I have the feeling it has been a bit over-optimistic.

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When do you think lab grown meat will start to be competitive with traditional meat? Milk?

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adam_dorr t1_j0mnsbm wrote

Thanks for your interest in our work!

It's hard to separate the signal from the noise during the pandemic period, but in broad terms the cost improvements are right on track with what we expected - mainly because of the absolutely massive scaling that is currently going on globally in this new industry. We are hoping to publish an update to our earlier analysis next year, but my personal expectation is that the original projections in the 2019 report will prove to be quite accurate as we approach 2030.

As for when the new products approach parity, it depends on the exact product in particular geographic regions/markets, but my general expectation is that by the mid-2020s there will be many markets where precision fermentation and cellular agriculture products are being produced the same or lower cost than traditional animal products. Keep in mind that cost (for producers) is not the same as the price that end-consumers pay.

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