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czk_21 t1_j67dhzm wrote

Reply to comment by chin-ki-chaddi in Kenya’s Producing Its First Electric Buses — 1,000 Buses Over 3 Years by Peugeot905

there will be bigger demand for batteries in mid-20s as north american,european and east asian markets going for more electric vehicles and 30s might be even worse- by 2035 there will be ban on non-electric cars sales in EU, lithium prices will skyrocket

https://medium.com/prime-movers-lab/does-the-u-s-have-enough-lithium-to-support-the-growing-ev-market-d73a44a969e5

only from 2021price of lithium went up 4x, not sure there will be ever glut of cells, africans with their low purchasing power wont be able to compete with developed countries easily

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chin-ki-chaddi t1_j67p3yj wrote

Nope, more and more Lithium mines are set to begin production in the next few years. That 4x price had a huge impact on the investment environment of Lithium mining. There will be a glut, especially with China's economy taking a major hit.

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czk_21 t1_j67xmgp wrote

yes there will be more mines that doesnt mean lithium will be cheap with ever rising demand, most of avalable deposits are in dry regions and you need lot of water to process lithium, there might big major shortage of available lithium by 2025

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/

china too has plans for EVs- as of 2035, 50% of new cars sold in the country will be either electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles, and 50% of new cars will be conventional hybrids, which still run entirely on gasoline.

I doubt that batteries will be particularly cheap in coming years, china economy is slowing down but it will still have hefty 4% growth

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Surur t1_j6832xk wrote

> you need lot of water to process lithium,

This bit is just a big lie. That water is due to evaporative extraction of lithium from brine, and it is just salty water which is useless in any case.

Dont fall for the propaganda. Evaporative extraction is the most environmentally friendly since it uses the sun to do most of the hard work.

> china too has plans for EVs- as of 2035, 50% of new cars sold in the country will be either electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles,

It's already 30%, so in theory demand will only double. Actually it will hit 90% soon, but that again is only 3x as much.

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AndroidMyAndroid t1_j67omx9 wrote

Not every battery is lithium ion. Cheap cars for poor countries will use cheap batteries.

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czk_21 t1_j67w5yw wrote

true but what cheap viable alternative for vehicles do you have in mind?

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Surur t1_j6837qc wrote

Sodium batteries. Half the cost, but bulkier.

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AndroidMyAndroid t1_j6bdrjm wrote

Nickel or even lead acid for very low range, low cost batteries until something else comes along. Difference use cases will have different solutions.

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DHFranklin t1_j68nqnz wrote

However this is perfect for buses. That cost being split by 50 riders at a time or exported. Kenya would be one of the cheapest places to import from with a weaker currency.

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