i think this is very true. scares resources like catastrophes are not distributed evenly, any nation which can gain an advantage will do so to a certain extend. The day you got only a few people left, they will have to work together if they want to prosper. Look at the increasing ecological pressure, the consequence is less a collaboration than a currently still quite amicable trade war and race for technology. imo this will turn ugly once shocks of damages with significant magnitude will hit.