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just-a-dreamer- t1_j9aiwzv wrote

ChatGtp won't destroy jobs like Napster didn't hurt the music business at large in the 1990's.

Spotify and youtube on the other hand got probably 70% of the music business staff fired.

It's not ChatGTP that will clean house for knowledge workers, it is the technology to come that will be based on it.

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rileyoneill t1_j9c8xge wrote

Napster was one of the first real disruptions the internet had on society. It definitely put pressure on the music industry and created this whole world where music was suddenly digital, on computers, and on the internet. It showed us a new world is possible and the old world was obsolete.

You are right. Its not ChatGPT, its the successor of ChatGPT. Its also the new business models and startups that will start ground up using ChatGPT vs old businesses that make the transition.

Spotify didn't start as a CD company, they were ground up internet.

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misconfigbackspace t1_j9bx7u5 wrote

And yet, there are more musicians and youtubers around the world making money than music staff ever employed at a given point in time. Bullshit jobs will be cleared out and skilled jobs will replace them. If the previous waves of automation are what you base your predictions on.

I have an entirely different take: the climate crisis will create hydrology, botany and genetic engineering jobs like never before. Labour will be needed to dig the trenches to trap rainwater, construct vertical or mixed farms. Precision fermentation / lab grown meat will employ a large number of people directly and indirectly. Solar panels, wind energy installations and related jobs will multiply. That's just 3 major industries I can immediately think of.

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rileyoneill t1_j9cdmdx wrote

The cost of music has also plummeted. We can now enjoy much more music and artists are no longer dependent on being mega stars to make a living. With services like Pateron, YouTube, and Spotify, we are seeing a lot of musicians who are middle class.

If we see a similar thing to things like food that you mentioned, we could see food prices plummet. PF made proteins could be cheaper than the bottle they go in.

There is a new startup called FreeWater that has canned water and the company sustains itself on the ads printed on the bottles. As PF disrupts food, we could see some sort of FreeFood business. Even if something as simple as Milk. Like FreeMilk or FreeProtein where you can go to a vending machine with your phone, and get a free can of nutrients where the real business is that there are ads on the can. But we can make this whole idea of hunger as something that no longer exists for humans. PF systems make the ingredients, which are then made into useful food by automated systems, which are then distributed by primarily Autonomous vehicles, stocked in warehouses by robots. Perhaps the final vending machine distribution will involve some human labor.

Automation should be seen as a force multiplier. It allows a group of 100 humans to do what at one point required a group of 1000 or 5000 humans to do. This insane productivity can then turn around and drastically reduce the cost of living. To where a current lifestyle that might require a $70,000 income can be afforded with a $15,000 income. Someone working 20 hours a week doing something 'easy' could live a pretty good life. No more grind or die. No more working poor. No more 50 hour week just to get by. Someone working a part time job can live fairly comfortably because the systems which provide all their energy, housing, food, clothing, and other goods are all automated.

I have envisioned something like this. AI Architects design mixed use urban block developments. Those AI architects then design all of the pieces for the development. There will still need to be humans working on the job site but the components to build the building will be assembled in an automated factory. All of the design work, engineering work, everything is mostly done by AI. The design might be driven by a team of humans who act as the more creative side. All of the building engineering is then verified and permitted with other autonomous systems. The components all then come to the job site with minimal to zero manipulation. Every steel beam is exactly the right size. Every tube and hose for plumbing is the right size. Humans and Robots then assemble the building.

This building isn't free. But instead of $500 per square foot construction costs, its $50-$100 per square foot construction costs. The 1 bedroom apartments might cost $45,000 to build. The developer could sell them at a 20% markup and the mortgage would be $420 per month. Rent on such a place in my city is currently 4-5 times that much. The developer makes the big money not by selling expensive housing, but by owning the retail/office space on the first and second floors. The housing just recoups their costs. But they maintain ownership of the first two floors and then rent it out to commercial tenants. A retail location with 500+ households sharing the same building and 10,000 households within a 10 minute walk is pretty sought after. Restaurants will pay a premium to be in a place where there are 25,000 customers in the neighborhood.

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misconfigbackspace t1_j9eh6t1 wrote

Excellent post. Vintage /r/Futurology stuff :) It's a bit too optimistic for my thoughts, but a pretty good set of ideas. We might have a wave of "consolidation" and a battle between the status quo and these new technologies (like in the music industry) before the more egalitarian society shapes up.

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