idranh t1_j8q33us wrote
2023 is already crazy and we're halfway through Feb. I can't imagine what 2024 and beyond will be like. God help us all.
If things start speeding up earlier than expected, what will it take for you to change your timelines?
izumi3682 OP t1_j8t0n54 wrote
Hiya mr idranhs! No, as of today I would not change my timelines. I wrote what I believe to be realistic timelines and I was soundly downvoted to about -17 I think. So most of the people here in rslashfuturology think I am detached from reality. Here is the link to that particular statement. I make the point that AGI could come into existence at any time now and will certainly exist NLT the year 2025. Based on that, I feel that my spread for 2027, 2028 and 2029 is pretty much in the ballpark. There is yet a very low chance for ASI in 2027, but the probability rises dramatically in 2028 and peaks in 2029. After 2029 the chances greatly decrease as it is most likely the TS occurred prior to the year 2030. You can see the breakdown here and how the rslashfuturology community reacted to my forecast.
izumi3682 OP t1_j8trbts wrote
Downvote, but no comment. As you can see mr idranhs, my predictions don't go over well here.
LongjumpingBottle t1_j8ud67x wrote
You were right all along bro
izumi3682 OP t1_j8ugejf wrote
hiya mr longjumpers! Gosh I haven't seen you in a month of Sundays! Are you well?
I just want to get the word out. Nobody can really prepare for a TS. We as humans in human society and human civilization do what we can do, until we can't do it any longer. I still maintain that the TS will be most favorable to humanity--as much as a TS can be.
Having said that, I still maintain that this will be close to what we see in the near, mid and and definitely not that distant of a future.
LongjumpingBottle t1_j8w399d wrote
The singularity is now. We are living it.
mozartbrain t1_j95or9v wrote
"technological singularity preppers" anyone? : )
idranh t1_j8uj4t3 wrote
Well, I just gave you an upvote! People would be fine with your predictions if it was 2125-2132. Epochal events happening within their lifetimes and so close too? It's bound to get a negative reaction. I do respect the fact you've stuck with your guns and held your own feet to the fire.
TemetN t1_j8qxpox wrote
My timelines have my 50% range for AGI centered around 2024 (late 2024 to be fair from recollection, and at this point I wouldn't be shocked by earlier). Honestly though, I'd have to see something significant to really speed up my timelines more meaningfully than 'occurring inside the range expected'. Something like evidence of progress on strong AGI instead of weak. My timelines for that still have strongly operationalized (not quite the same as strong I suppose) AGI up around 2030.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments