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Bismar7 t1_ja4d62p wrote

AI is our future and the advance is exponential not linear. From 1700 to now what is the progress towards AI?

How about from 1980 to now, 2010 to now? The human genome project had nearly no progress made until after half the time spent on it. In the past three years we have seen remarkable AI since we have the hardware to support it. Human adult level AI will exist in labs in 2025, that's two years. It will be commercial by 2027, in the 30s we will achieve a level of superintelligent AI with capabilities beyond what we imagine today. Less than 10 years.

Scalability is a question of hardware to host their minds and our process with them will be one of synthesis and cooperation as all of us are better off working together. This becomes much more time consuming if we also try to build physical representation of them (compared to billions of humans), AI bodies become too much of an expense. So the reality is that likely by 2035 most remote labor will be AI, lots of paralegal, call center, managerial types of work that don't require a physical presence, data analytics, hell the stock market already uses bots.

The danger has been human. It will continue to be human. These AI will learn from us like adults but with a ferocity for learning we could never match. Who teaches and guides them determines the foundation they build from, superintelligence can easily equate super wisdom.

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o_o_o_f t1_ja54xdp wrote

Out of curiosity, where are you getting that timetable? I don’t have any reason to disbelieve it aside from that I haven’t seen it talked about before. And what does “human adult level” mean?

From what I’ve heard about AI, it seems like we are still a ways off from true general intelligence, and even farther from the sort of “comprehension” that is sometimes expected from people’s idea of what AI would be. I’m a software engineer, and we are only just starting to talk about AI at my company - I want to be clear that I do not know much about where the state of AI is truly at.

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ianitic t1_ja6gsks wrote

They're just making up timelines. I know there are some models that if you just drag the line forward, approach human level ability in a very niche task by 2030. There's a lot of niche tasks out there though.

A lot of these timelines also assume moores law will keep up pace and it's slated to die when transistors have the thinness of atoms by 2025.

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Psychomadeye t1_ja6sw8a wrote

The technology underpinning AI as we call it today was invented in 1948. It was improved in the 50s and 60s but was abandoned basically because it sucked. We developed better hardware and picked it back up in the 90s. Massive improvements since then. Only since we've seen some open AI toys has this subreddit cared. All that's really going to happen for us as developers is our environments will have better code completion.

I'm sometimes worried how this sub is going to respond twenty years from now when they find out about the Vietnam war.

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I_comment_on_stuff_ t1_ja5o9sv wrote

Where do you think the line will be for jobs that have nuance to the tasks? Some nuance could be handled by AI, but how much?

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Bismar7 t1_ja5ypxw wrote

Well, the determination of the limits on AI is their hardware, as what we build can host more complex minds. Right now humans are better, over time they will reach where we are and moving forward their hardware will keep advancing, and likely merge with humans to be the best we can design. A hybrid of organic and electrical knowledge that is unimaginable today.

However I would say during 2027-2028 likely AI will achieve competency in the same tasks any 25 year old adult has on a commercial level, but we will have to see.

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Psychomadeye t1_ja6t5lx wrote

>Well, the determination of the limits on AI is their hardware, as what we build can host more complex minds.

This is not true at all.

>Right now humans are better, over time they will reach where we are and moving forward their hardware will keep advancing, and likely merge with humans to be the best we can design. A hybrid of organic and electrical knowledge that is unimaginable today.

Drugs are bad.

>However I would say during 2027-2028 likely AI will achieve competency in the same tasks any 25 year old adult has on a commercial level, but we will have to see.

Source for this?

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Cerulean_IsFancyBlue t1_ja8fj6r wrote

Projecting exponential growth indefinitely is a common hazard of speculating.

If you looked at movie theaters in the 1930s, or televisions in the 1950s, or gaming consoles in the early 1990s, you also have an exponential curve

If you looked at the speed of travel in the 1970s, not only would you have an exponential curve, but you’d be anticipating supersonic flight as a regular commercial service. Which simply came and went.

And last, there are times when exponential growth does not have exponential effects.

Simply pointing to an exponential curve, especially for technology, does not answer questions. It asks them.

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oreola-circus t1_ja6w6wa wrote

>AI is our future and the advance is exponential not linear. From 1700 to now what is the progress towards AI?

In the late 17th century Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz invent calculus. Through the rest of the 1700s mathematics has a huge number of advancements because of it. Things like vectors and spaces began to take shape. In the 1850s people started to play with matrices to solve systems of equations and define spaces and operations. This happened not long after Ada Lovelace created the first programming language to run on the first computer. By the end of the century computers were there from a science perspective, but it would be another twenty years before the first really effective machines are made and another 20 after that to have one fast enough to break enigma. The technology we know today as AI was officially described in 1948 but it's just an idea in linear algebra to create an artificial neuron, to be run on those machines.

From the late 40s to the late 60s there was massive improvements to AI as a technology. Somewhere in there is a program that learns to play checkers to beat any human. The 70s was relatively quiet as AI didn't have the capacity to do very much that was useful on the hardware of the day. There is more in the 1980s as hardware catches up to the idea, but we don't really see anything until the 1990s when deep blue beat Kasparov. Then everyone panicked spent the next ten years saying "the machines will take over in the next couple years". In late 2022 we had another Kasparov event and people go full doomer because the AI drew a picture and wrote code that looks like it could work but doesn't.

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