tabshiftescape t1_itbxuvh wrote on October 22, 2022 at 1:52 PM

Reply to comment by IamSauerKraut in You know it's bad when the "everything is rigged" guy agrees that the polls aren't rigged by ActivatedFamiliar

Please provide a justifiably better source of aggregated responses from likely voters and I’ll update my original comment.

IamSauerKraut t1_itbzxa7 wrote on October 22, 2022 at 2:09 PM

I shall do no such thing. When it comes to Nate Silver, buyer beware.

tabshiftescape t1_itc0fw6 wrote on October 22, 2022 at 2:13 PM

In most areas of my life, I try to take the approach of “unless you know a better way.” Critical accusations and suggestions of caution have a place, but should be stated with evidence.

We have as much reason to treat your cautioning with caution as we do the link I originally posted.

IamSauerKraut t1_itc2b7f wrote on October 22, 2022 at 2:27 PM

Nate Silver has been so wrong so often for so long that I do not consider him a credible predictor of future events. That he is an aggregator or claims to use "math" is meaningless. Indeed, in the Perry-Daniels race for Congress, he has Daniels up by 3%. Which makes "unless you know a better way" equally meaningless in this context.