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kompootor t1_jcg0ofo wrote

Reply to comment by ThePhilosofyzr in [OC] The price of a dozen large eggs in the U.S., 2019-2023 by gridnews

The high was a response to culling (as well as a rising high in the past 5 years due to US market trends due to things like cage bans and a growing organic market share -- small next to the culling response, but the market hadn't totally responded yet). The historic high was speculative.

How can you tell? Compare the growth in the wholesale price of chickens to that of eggs. Both eggs and chickens had no response when avian flu was first reported in Jan 2022, then rapidly rose with the first culls in March, which continued until another flurry of news stories about culls in Oct-Nov (a Google search is best to see the general distribution of news story dates in 2022, but I don't think I can link my own results now). But chicken prices didn't respond then, because culls had been continuous, while eggs did, which I suspect was market speculation -- that's confirmed because egg prices crashed in January 2023 (back to where they are "supposed to be"), while chicken prices are steady. That's finance QED afaik.

[Edit: My opinion on this is significantly less confident -- see continued comments below.]

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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcgaxbf wrote

To clarify; do you posit that this year's historically high price of eggs was due to commodity speculation more so than just a reduction in production (due to culling)?

I am not sure that I understand what the lack of a correlation between the change in prices of chicken sold for meat, & the change in prices of eggs demonstrates on behalf of your argument. My knowledge of chicken farming begins & ends with the understanding that chickens raised to produce eggs are generally not the ones sold for meat, but that understanding comes from smaller farms, not industrial scale farming.

I am, truthfully, not that interested in the results with regard to how it affected or affects the egg market, but I am interested in making sure I understand your argument.

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kompootor t1_jcgmy47 wrote

You're right, they're different industries and different markets, so it's not a perfect parallel, and I completely neglected that fact.

By numbers, in January 2023 of 58m culled, at least 40m were egg-laying hens (the public dataset does not have very standardized distinctions for many flocks, so it looks to be an estimate based on what's known).[NBC 2023-01-18] One explanation for the discrepancy: "Chickens grown for meat can be less prone to infection as they are slaughtered after about six weeks, but bigger, older birds and egg-laying hens [who live longer] have been severely affected. " [Bloomberg 2022-12-19] Also I should have looked up other indicators like turkey prices, which have risen steadily, except their rise begins in Dec 2021 (prior to the first reported outbreak) and continues to soar, overall almost as steeply as the price of eggs, without fluctuation to date.

So it's definitely not as simple as I thought, and I shouldn't have just put it down to some speculative bubble, since nobody else is (although USDA reports don't even seem to address the price crash in January -- I can't imagine what else at least that spike could have been, but I'm no commodities trader.) Good call-out.

[To be clear, this is what I am claiming now: I have a decent suspicion that the peak and crash in egg prices in January was due to a not-insignificant element of speculation some time during the months leading up. My supporting evidence for this, or links to qualified experts (unlike me) who might have a similar suspicion, is nonexistent -- I can't find anything worthwhile. Hopefully as I detailed how the sources I found countered my initial reasoning, something of it might be informative to others interested in this topic.]

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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcgzo42 wrote

You've changed my mind, I am now very interested in what's going on here. I will deep dive after work. What is going on with the price of turkey?

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