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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcfh8a5 wrote

That historic high was because they had to kill a lot of chickens infected with avian flu. CDC say nearly 60 million birds infect domestically in the US https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

47 million dead/culled to reduce spread as of October last year nearing the 2015 deadliest on record (50.5 million dead)

OP, any chance you saw that graph extended back a few more years?

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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcfhpys wrote

Found it: https://www.nefb.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Egg-Price-Per-Dozen-1536x892.png

Also, the production drop of eggs in Nebraska: https://www.nefb.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NE-Monthly-Egg-Production.png

Sauce: https://www.nefb.org/10/31/2022/hpai-verses-the-egg/

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gridnews OP t1_jcfk6bb wrote

Hey, just had the team create this, take a look: https://imgur.com/a/df67eEd

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gridnews OP t1_jcfhl30 wrote

Will see if the team can extend the data more right now.

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kompootor t1_jcg0ofo wrote

The high was a response to culling (as well as a rising high in the past 5 years due to US market trends due to things like cage bans and a growing organic market share -- small next to the culling response, but the market hadn't totally responded yet). The historic high was speculative.

How can you tell? Compare the growth in the wholesale price of chickens to that of eggs. Both eggs and chickens had no response when avian flu was first reported in Jan 2022, then rapidly rose with the first culls in March, which continued until another flurry of news stories about culls in Oct-Nov (a Google search is best to see the general distribution of news story dates in 2022, but I don't think I can link my own results now). But chicken prices didn't respond then, because culls had been continuous, while eggs did, which I suspect was market speculation -- that's confirmed because egg prices crashed in January 2023 (back to where they are "supposed to be"), while chicken prices are steady. That's finance QED afaik.

[Edit: My opinion on this is significantly less confident -- see continued comments below.]

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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcgaxbf wrote

To clarify; do you posit that this year's historically high price of eggs was due to commodity speculation more so than just a reduction in production (due to culling)?

I am not sure that I understand what the lack of a correlation between the change in prices of chicken sold for meat, & the change in prices of eggs demonstrates on behalf of your argument. My knowledge of chicken farming begins & ends with the understanding that chickens raised to produce eggs are generally not the ones sold for meat, but that understanding comes from smaller farms, not industrial scale farming.

I am, truthfully, not that interested in the results with regard to how it affected or affects the egg market, but I am interested in making sure I understand your argument.

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kompootor t1_jcgmy47 wrote

You're right, they're different industries and different markets, so it's not a perfect parallel, and I completely neglected that fact.

By numbers, in January 2023 of 58m culled, at least 40m were egg-laying hens (the public dataset does not have very standardized distinctions for many flocks, so it looks to be an estimate based on what's known).[NBC 2023-01-18] One explanation for the discrepancy: "Chickens grown for meat can be less prone to infection as they are slaughtered after about six weeks, but bigger, older birds and egg-laying hens [who live longer] have been severely affected. " [Bloomberg 2022-12-19] Also I should have looked up other indicators like turkey prices, which have risen steadily, except their rise begins in Dec 2021 (prior to the first reported outbreak) and continues to soar, overall almost as steeply as the price of eggs, without fluctuation to date.

So it's definitely not as simple as I thought, and I shouldn't have just put it down to some speculative bubble, since nobody else is (although USDA reports don't even seem to address the price crash in January -- I can't imagine what else at least that spike could have been, but I'm no commodities trader.) Good call-out.

[To be clear, this is what I am claiming now: I have a decent suspicion that the peak and crash in egg prices in January was due to a not-insignificant element of speculation some time during the months leading up. My supporting evidence for this, or links to qualified experts (unlike me) who might have a similar suspicion, is nonexistent -- I can't find anything worthwhile. Hopefully as I detailed how the sources I found countered my initial reasoning, something of it might be informative to others interested in this topic.]

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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcgzo42 wrote

You've changed my mind, I am now very interested in what's going on here. I will deep dive after work. What is going on with the price of turkey?

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NHFI t1_jcfp9jq wrote

Considering egg companies posted obscene record profits thats just the lie they use to jack the price up higher than needed

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ThePhilosofyzr t1_jcg0i6v wrote

Do you have any hollandaise? (a source)

Not contesting, as it's easy to believe that the mix of 'soft-flation' & actual restriction of production led to outrageous price gouging for consumers, but I haven't read or heard about egg distributors raking in profits above & beyond usual.

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NHFI t1_jcg1tts wrote

Totally fair. Some companies profits are up 40-60% despite saying it's the flu causing price rises. "Cal-Maine's profit increased 65% to $198 million during the three months ended Nov. 26 from a year ago."https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/13/business/egg-prices-cal-maine-foods/index.html

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aftpanda2u t1_jcgt3aa wrote

Wasn't Cal-Maine the ones telling their investors their chickens weren't actually affected at all by the flu and they just jacked up prices because they could?

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NHFI t1_jcgvmk9 wrote

Correct. 0 avian flu cases at their facilities. Prices jacked up in some cases 100-200% from the previous year with essentially 0 purpose other than they could

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Rugfiend t1_jcg1rdv wrote

Hmm... 60 million does sound a lot, but for perspective, 1 billion wings are eaten on Superbowl Sunday each year.

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graphguy t1_jcfk1c8 wrote

Hmm ... I thought this was a nice simple/good graph ... but in light of the graph ThePhilosofyzr added in a comment, showing eggs went up to $3 towards the end of 2015 ... it appears the data in this graph might be a little "cherry picked". :\

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Aelok t1_jcfk6ri wrote

I wonder what a mass grave of 50 million chickens looks like ...

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jake_the_tower t1_jcfthxb wrote

Now that FDA said eggs are healthy, the price might jump even more.

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fredezz t1_jchmh7p wrote

It's interesting that the price of boneless chicken breasts is holding quite steady @ $2.00 a pound. Shouldn't one expect the price to rise proportionately?

Note: New England sale prices.

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ryleu t1_jcurtl0 wrote

i’d imagine that people would prefer to buy other meats rather than pay through the nose for chicken. chicken has always been the “plain and boring” meat (though i make it taste good), and if it were to get expensive, i’d just buy something else

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gridnews OP t1_jcfeotk wrote

Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Tool: Datawrapper

Post: https://mailchi.mp/grid.news/grid-today-what-desantis-means-on-ukraine?e=2181c60ee6

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kompootor t1_jcfz8tu wrote

When you list a source, whether in your graph or in the post here (I'd say especially in the post, but it should be in the graph too), a user must be able to verify the data. I cannot find the source data, and I followed the link to the CPI site.

Furthermore, the source is definitely not the site on which you originally post the graph -- for one thing, that is not "OC". If it's from a newsletter, that's your secondary citation, whereas you still have to make the primary citation to the original data so that, again, we can verify the numbers, who calculated them, their methodology (definitions, date range, their own data sources, etc.), among other things.

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gridnews OP t1_jcg0l97 wrote

Hey, that's a great note. We just updated the above post to include a link to the data source. Apologies! Let us know if that works.

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kompootor t1_jcg8g15 wrote

Yes, it links to the data. I recommend you amend the newsletter to include the source as well, if you want people to take your publication seriously. (I know it's just a simple 2D line graph of the data, but that's perfectly ok for a professional visualization -- what's not ok is not linking to the data directly if available.)

Your title, or something, needs to clarify that it's either using CPI or adjusted for inflation -- either works. BLS also publishes data on "average price" in USD, which is not adjusted, so what you have is ambiguous at best -- though my initial assumption was that your graph wasn't adjusted, because a lot of times data that's not adjusted does not explicitly specify that it's "not adjusted" -- see e.g. any graph or dataset from IMF. So that really needs to be specified.

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Pioppo- t1_jcfnhpq wrote

What's "Grade A" eggs? Eggs that comes from free range chickens or something else?

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designateddroner2 t1_jcfpdlu wrote

There are three consumer grades for eggs: United States (U.S.) Grade AA, A, and B. The grade is determined by the interior quality of the egg and the appearance and condition of the egg shell. Eggs of any quality grade may differ in weight (size). U.S. Grade AA eggs have whites that are thick and firm; yolks that are high, round, and practically free from defects; and clean, unbroken shells.

Grade AA and Grade A eggs are best for frying and poaching where appearance is important, and for any other purpose. U.S. Grade A eggs have characteristics of Grade AA eggs except that the whites are reasonably firm. This is the quality most often sold in stores. U.S. Grade B eggs have whites that may be thinner and yolks that may be wider and flatter than eggs of higher grades. The shells must be unbroken, but may show slight stains. This quality is seldom found in retail stores because they are usually used to make liquid, frozen, and dried egg products.

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tamagosan t1_jcg4q6h wrote

You know what would make the price of eggs go down?

Stop buying eggs.

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Alfalfa-Similar t1_jcgbncz wrote

when we have a dirty industry brewing up bird flues, this happens.

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o1o2o1 t1_jcjaagw wrote

Forget crypto, invest in eggs!

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mugsimo t1_jcgtfuz wrote

Yep. I paid $7.69 for a dozen Grade A Large brown eggs last night. The white ones were $7.99. Usually the brown ones are more expensive.

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Encryptedmind t1_jch58lm wrote

I thought this was a graph representing the housing market

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NotTheTimbsMan t1_jcjjizy wrote

What the fuck is a dozen of eggs? When will Americans start being normal? Just say 10 or 12 eggs or whatever

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Bugsarecool2 t1_jcg1avf wrote

The USDA has put all our concerns to rest by assuring the price will decline 30% off historic high in a year or so. This is cause for celebration! 🙄

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anoziraguy9687 t1_jcg47c3 wrote

Yeah, after the near-monopolistic market control of egg producers decide to lower the price and can no longer blame the avian flu for their high prices. 🤗

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somedudevt t1_jcgjozp wrote

It’s already back to the level it was pre all this in the northeast. Peaked at 5.50 a dozen here, but we are sitting at 2.10 as of last Friday locally.

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