Iminlesbian t1_ja9lehu wrote on February 27, 2023 at 9:14 PM

Reply to comment by PM_ur_Rump in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

Ah I get it, thanks a lot. The lottery chances "resetting" after the first win actually makes sense to me.

I think that's where my head gets confused. If I saw a plane crash I'd think of it as "well there's no chance of two of that thing happening today!" Rather than " it's still just as likely to happen today."

PM_ur_Rump t1_ja9mk20 wrote on February 27, 2023 at 9:21 PM

Glad I could help ya figure something out! It's definitely a bit counterintuitive at first, and I once had the same confusion. Cheers!

SYLOH t1_jaav09w wrote on February 28, 2023 at 2:32 AM

Do note. The guy seems to be talking about simple odds using real plane crashes for some reason.
Real world statistics do not work that way.

In the real world plane crashes are not independent events.
In the real world you knowledge of the odds of plane crashes is not complete.
A plane crash will cause the ground crew and flight crew to change their behavior, shifting the odds.
A plane crash is evidence that your assumptions on the safety of a given model of plane might be incorrect.

In the magical world of simple odds, safety audits and groundings wouldn't make a lick of sense. They do in the real world.