This seems to operate under the incorrect assumption that tax refunds are equivalent to taxes paid.

They are not.

When filling out income tax forms at work you can set how much is taken out of a paycheck and paid to taxes. The amount can vary on a lot of things like marriage status, disabilities etc.
If you set the amount too high and paid more in taxes than you owed, then you get a refund.

If you did not pay enough, then you would owe more money during tax time.