That’s basically my commute right now (except I go to Lexington Ave-53rd St). It really is basically exactly the same amount of time whether you take the train to WTC or to 33rd so, like a bunch of others said, I would generally just recommend taking whichever one comes first BUT, I would also recommend signing up for MTAAlerts because there have definitely been days where I take the train to 33rd and the M is messed up or I take the train to WTC and the 4/5/6 is messed up.

Most of the time I just bike from Herald Square unless the weather is bad but Citibike availability can be very hit or miss.