First Snow Map For The Tuesday/Wednesday Nor'Easter

Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_11pt0cc in newhampshire

Why hello! This has been nothing short of a tricky forecast from the start, which includes closely balancing out factors like low position, placement of heavy snow banding (deformation axis), sun angle, marginal temperature profiles, etc. This is my first official stab at the snow forecast, expect these grids to change Monday. As always, here are some takeaways:

  1. The Winter Storm Watch continues for all of NH except Coos County. This likely becomes a Winter Storm Warning by sunrise Monday.
  2. Significant snow accumulations are expected across the Monadnock Region, eastern Merrimack River valley, & eastern Lakes Region. Amounts over 16" are becoming more likely, particularly along E & NE facing slopes in Dublin, Peterborough, Jaffrey, Fitzwilliam, & Rindge. This is under the 700 mb deformation axis, which is a band of heavy snow pivoting back WNW from the coastal low as it explodes. If you recall my discussion on the potential for the heaviest snow band to wobble SE from my previous post, that scenario has occurred. It's amazing what you can prepare for when accounting for model biases....
  3. Let's talk travel: it's going to be an adventure, depending on where you live and what time. Here's where issues are expected by daypart:
    1. Tuesday Morning: Southern Monadnock Region (moderate) & lower Merrimack Valley west of Epping, south of Concord (low)
    2. Tuesday Evening: All of NH (moderate) except Coos County (low)
    3. Wednesday Morning: Southern Monadnock Region (low)
  4. At least minor coastal flooding is expected Tuesday before winds pivot to the NNE away from the Gulf of Maine. Wind gusts are not expected to reach speeds where power outages become more widespread.

https://preview.redd.it/5vqnea2yydna1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=2a621d05681ddd2501e3e552db6977f2943798db

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Comments

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DeerFlyHater t1_jbzlx8q wrote

This will be fun with a lot of votes/town meetings happening Tuesday.

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rmarkham t1_jbzmb0l wrote

So commuting from Hooksett to Chelmsford on Tuesday… is it worth it? Will it be shit all day?

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rj218 t1_jbzmppq wrote

As always, love the forecast and your analysis. However, can you explain/clarify your descriptions on the commute/travel impact. What is low impact? Meaning drivers should be fine with caution? Moderate = go slower. ? Etc. For future forecasts.

The way the storm is shaping up it seems Tuesday afternoon will be terrible to drive in.

Thanks again

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jbzmzwl wrote

Replying to rj218 (#2,217,153)

Good question! The impact scale is geared towards how I'd expect most people to react here:

Low: Travel is manageable with proper precautions

Moderate: Travel is degraded, proactive road treatment on primary roads will offer some improvement

High: Travel is severely degraded, regardless of road treatment

Major: Travel is essentially impossible, regardless of road treatment

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totalimmortal_ t1_jbzox1d wrote

This might be a dumb question, but what do the + signs on your map represent? I live very close to that one to the right of Lake Sunapee.

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eklindss t1_jbzqigd wrote

Thank you for your service 🫡☁️

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citizennsnipps t1_jbzsng3 wrote

Thanks cloud boy! I always wonder if you're a Plymouth student/grad.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jbzvszp wrote

Replying to totalimmortal_ (#2,217,541)

Oh! Those plus symbols are a layer in the GIS program I use that represent the individual location of clients my company has, I didn't even realize I left those on 😬. The one by you is SAU 65 Kearsarge, so your school system employs our services!

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FuckM3Tendr t1_jbzwomu wrote

Really appreciate this info, thanks TheCloudBoy for sharing

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jipapi3612 t1_jbzyqf8 wrote

What range of snowfall total are the yellow patches seen in southern Vermont?

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iefbr14 t1_jc04uzy wrote

I greatly appreciate your work u/TheCloudBoy. But can i suggest you correct your county base map, to separate Belknap and Carroll counties? It would make it easier for some of us to see if we're in the 8-12" or 12-16" zones. Not that it will make much difference.

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feelurvibe t1_jc05crp wrote

Is this a large risk for widespread prolonged power outages ?

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jc05np0 wrote

Replying to iefbr14 (#2,217,961)

Oh, are you finding the division between Belknap & Carroll is tough to see between Lake Winnipesaukee with how dark the lake coloring is? Obviously keeping an eye on the snow grids will be the most important, as divisions won't follow the county line!

Check out this brighter lake coloring to see if that helps: https://imgur.com/a/bcriiMn

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Emeleigh_Rose t1_jc07xqx wrote

Thanks as always for taking the time out of your day/night to update us on the storm. It's so helpful in planning around the storm, especially the safety factors involved for travel and road conditions. It's much appreciated.

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fnly88 t1_jc0b11r wrote

You rock! Thank you for sharing.

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greenitalianscallion t1_jc0bltx wrote

Thank you for an in depth forecast! I live in a border town in Maine, Lovell, what’s the texture look like? Can’t find this with many meteorologists I follow on fb and twitter. Wondering if I’ll be able to dig out in time for an appointment on Wednesday

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bubbynee t1_jc0c6k7 wrote

Thank for sharing your expertise.

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thetruthaboutcows t1_jc0cm3e wrote

Replying to TheCloudBoy (#2,218,011)

I think power outages are a considerable threat in Rockingham, Hillsborough, and Cheshire counties. GYX and BOX WFOs have been hinting pretty hard at this in there AFD and watches. I think it was March 2017 that caused a ton of damage in the Merrimack valley that this storm reminds me of in terms of impact.

https://www.eagletribune.com/news/digging-out-power-lights-life-returns-to-normal-after-stella/article_23d3f9f6-aba1-58a1-b841-b2aab05c56dc.html

Just my two cents though, good forecast as always I enjoy your posts.

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CBKritter t1_jc0dyer wrote

Looks like I came home just in time.... f**k lol

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238bazinga t1_jc0f814 wrote

Great, anything in/out of KMHT Tuesday morning and/or night is going to be a disaster. So glad I work second shift...

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_jc0mn0s wrote

Replying to trolllord45 (#2,218,561)

Oh get ready, it's about to go through another name change soon as well. The state college system in VT is a joke; the success of Lyndon's meteorology program in the future will be dependent on them jettisoning VSC for a larger school.

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Valriete t1_jc0uevi wrote

> Amounts over 16" are becoming more likely, particularly along E & NE facing slopes in Dublin, Peterborough, Jaffrey, Fitzwilliam, & Rindge.

Oooohhhh, good.

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MagicalPeanut t1_jc0uoci wrote

I appreciate what you do here, and all meterologists in general.

Unfortunately, it's easy for people to be critical of the work because they don't fully understand the complexity of it. They may see a forecast that doesn't quite match what they experience, or they may be frustrated by sudden changes in the weather. But what they don't see is the immense amount of data you have to analyze with the sophisticated computer models you use to make predictions.

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iefbr14 t1_jc10bhe wrote

Replying to TheCloudBoy (#2,217,996)

Sorry, you're right. I'm used to looking at county maps without the lake. Its going to be exciting anyway. At the beginning of March i was complaining we hadn't had enough snow this year. Be careful what you wish for.

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Different_Ad7655 t1_jc1e6et wrote

Oh God, if everybody in New England especially Northern New England would retire this pathetic neologism that was invented 30 years ago or so nor'easter. Come on come on come on. If you're going to speak like a New Englander you're going to drop the R's at least. This piece of crap nor'easter word never existed was invented by some weather guy and more importantly perpetuated by the weather channel. Oh it grates on my ears every time I hear it.. If anything pronounce it nawth eastuh. Come on take back your home turf and do not except this import. NAWTH EASTUH. That should be the proper pronunciation of such a storm system as it always was before the silliness took over 25 years or so ago

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BUGGLady t1_jc1i4km wrote

Thanks for bringing the tears this morning Cloud Boy.

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SRTie4k t1_jc1j8lo wrote

Replying to thetruthaboutcows (#2,218,278)

Living in the Monadnock region myself, I'd be surprised if there were significant power outages. We've already had more power outages this winter than we've had the past 4 years combined. My assumption is most of the dead and loose tree limbs have already come down with the previous few storms we've gotten, and there will only be sporadic outages here and there.

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kitchinsink t1_jc1vvx4 wrote

Some real interesting banding on the snow totals. At first glance it seems like mountainous regions, but then it hits in some of the valleys too. If you have time (no worries if not), in this case, what has caused that banding? I'm seeing it on several models, including yours, so I was curious.

I figure that normally there's some level of banding but this seems super pronounced in areas outside of the mountainous regions (which, obviously get higher snow totals).

Thanks cloud boy! You rock!

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Breakdancingbad t1_jc236vr wrote

Any chance a more dramatic contrast color scale can be used? I have color vision impairment and really struggle to distinguish the shades of pink / light purple…or at least that’s how they appear to me…

In this one 8-12 and 4-8 bands are real tough to distinguish on my phone screen!

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Queasy_Turnover t1_jc26ngm wrote

Replying to SRTie4k (#2,219,569)

I really hope you're right, and I've been cautiously feeling the same way. I thought for sure I'd lose power last weekend and it wound up not happening, so my fingers are crossed it's the same this time around.

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thetruthaboutcows t1_jc2itdh wrote

Replying to SRTie4k (#2,219,569)

Good point, but if you guys get 12+ of wet heavy snow all bets are off. NWS was really pushing this in there morning discussion.

“Snow is expected to be wet, heavy and dense with a significant snow load factor that will greatly increase the risk for snow damage as totals exceed 4 or more inches. Factor that in with strong NE winds developing later Tuesday morning to especially Tuesday night, the potential for tree and powerline damage will prove a significant hazard, reflected in the Winter Storm Severity Index.”

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SRTie4k t1_jc2u0xo wrote

Replying to thetruthaboutcows (#2,220,972)

We've gotten 12+ inches of wet heavy snow a few times already. In Dublin I got 14 inches of cement on January 22.

Like I said, we've gotten enough heavy wet stuff and high winds in the past few months that I doubt there will be significant power issues. My generator is ready in case I'm wrong, though.

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bostonkittycat t1_jc41kj2 wrote

Got milk, bread, eggs, and extra kibble for the kitties. Will be fine.

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