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DPPthrowaway1255 t1_j9o10wl wrote

Reply to comment by Ambitious_Jello in Magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes Tajikistan, near border with China by Papppi-56

Consider this thought experiment: you have a rope that is attached to a wall. The other end of the rope is wrapped around a spool that rotates slowly, steadily increasing the tension on the rope.

At one point the rope will snap. It is your job to predict that point in time ten seconds in advance, by just using your eyes.

Predicting earthquakes is hard.

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Mental_Medium3988 t1_j9ocb7g wrote

i feel like i should be nervous living in the pnw. everywhere else is relieving pressure as normal... and were "overdue".

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hibelly t1_j9ozsss wrote

I'm in the PNW and I'm nervous as fuck

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Projectrage t1_j9qa80z wrote

Cascade subduction will be devastating for any body on the coast…a potential 7 story wave with 40sec notice. Then no way of getting help. PNW needs to invest in helicopters. Past the mountains will be earthquakes. Inland will not be bad, but brick and masonry places will understandably have issues, but the coast will be deadly.

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thadeusthesecond t1_j9ql9dh wrote

I drove back to Vancouver from tofino the other week. If one tree drops on any of those roads, then I don't see how anyone makes it out in time.

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Disquietudette t1_j9o5lr2 wrote

interesting analogue. Would you care to elaborate what parts of the Earth are playing the parts of wall, rope and spool?

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DPPthrowaway1255 t1_j9o6k7o wrote

There‘s no 1:1 analogue, I just was looking for the most simple setup of a system where an increase in tension leads to an explosive release of energy. To demonstrate how hard it can be to make a prediction.

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Disquietudette t1_j9orbt9 wrote

thanks for answering! I understand it’s hard but if you absolutely would need to come up with a sort of analogue to explain the causative mechanism of earthquakes to a layman, what sort of things would describe it best? Provided that it still remains a simplified generalization? I’m sorry if i come across as stubbornly persistent but i really don’t have a concise understanding of how to explain this phenomenon to myself or others and you seem like a person who might be able to do that.

edit: why the fuck am i downvoted for asking a question? How fucking stupid are you people? If one can’t ask, one might never learn either and learning is something we seemingly need all the more when people are behaving like you are.

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DPPthrowaway1255 t1_j9ouwwo wrote

Maybe imagine rubbing two bricks against each other: they have a rough surface, so at some point the irregularities will interlock and block the movement and you have to increase pressure to get them to slide again. When that happens, the two bricks will move quickly until the next irregularity in the surface gets in the way.

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Wand_Cloak_Stone t1_j9q9q2n wrote

I thought you asked politely and that other people probably had the same or similar questions due to not everyone on Reddit being a seismologist. Sorry you got downvoted for trying to learn. Your edit could have been a bit more graceful, though.

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Disquietudette t1_j9qg7ct wrote

I thought everything i did would be commendable. I try to be what i wish others would also be. I try to learn, i ask clear questions and even try to put the question in a form that would be easy to understand and the one answering would have less trouble in figuring out what i am asking, i thank for every answer and try to reply something worthwhile. I stay humble because i know so little. I ask questions to engage people, strike a conversation and bring forth people wiser and more knowledgeable than myself, try to make the knowledge approachable for myself and others. I try to take account the appearance of my questions: i know my questions might be felt as stubborn and the knowledge might be hard to be distilled in a form accessible to ignorant people like myself. So everything i did i felt was what should be done and still i was downvoted. So because of this i feel people who are downvoting are acting contrary to reason and good manners and people who are acting like that are.. stupid? And stupidity.. should be called out? I think it serves the stupid people best if someone calls out their behavior as it lets them know of their shortcomings. I know i didn’t do it gracefully but in a stupid manner. All downvoters: i wish you well. Please act in a way you wish others would act towards you.

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Wand_Cloak_Stone t1_j9qgq8g wrote

Reddit is just fickle. I’ve made the same comment two different times before, in the same sub but in different threads/on different days, and had one get downvoted to hell and the other with 1000 upvotes. Don’t let it bother you, a lot of people on this site are very young and need to develop a bit of maturity.

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Disquietudette t1_j9qh8a6 wrote

thanks for your words kind stranger. I have noticed a similar pattern. I try to not let it bother me.

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Sir_Synn t1_j9pkrtu wrote

Have a brick laying on a countertop with a large rubber band wrapped around in on the side so the brick has full contact on the counter. Pull the rubber band like your trying to move the brick in one direction and measure with a ruler the length the rubber band stretches before the brick moves. You'll find that there is no pattern in your measurements when you do this, and it seems the distance before the brick moves is random. This experiment emulates that elestic nature and friction of plate tectonics rubbing against each other and why we haven't been able to predict exactly when earthquakes happen.

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bdigital1796 t1_j9q0uum wrote

my cats high-tail away 11 seconds in advance. they know something I don't

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Ambitious_Jello t1_j9o18zo wrote

It's a joke. I know it's hard

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