DPPthrowaway1255
DPPthrowaway1255 t1_j9o6k7o wrote
Reply to comment by Disquietudette in Magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes Tajikistan, near border with China by Papppi-56
Thereās no 1:1 analogue, I just was looking for the most simple setup of a system where an increase in tension leads to an explosive release of energy. To demonstrate how hard it can be to make a prediction.
DPPthrowaway1255 t1_j9o10wl wrote
Reply to comment by Ambitious_Jello in Magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes Tajikistan, near border with China by Papppi-56
Consider this thought experiment: you have a rope that is attached to a wall. The other end of the rope is wrapped around a spool that rotates slowly, steadily increasing the tension on the rope.
At one point the rope will snap. It is your job to predict that point in time ten seconds in advance, by just using your eyes.
Predicting earthquakes is hard.
DPPthrowaway1255 t1_j9ouwwo wrote
Reply to comment by Disquietudette in Magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes Tajikistan, near border with China by Papppi-56
Maybe imagine rubbing two bricks against each other: they have a rough surface, so at some point the irregularities will interlock and block the movement and you have to increase pressure to get them to slide again. When that happens, the two bricks will move quickly until the next irregularity in the surface gets in the way.