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mechanicalcontrols t1_j9siv3h wrote

Reply to comment by Flash_ina_pan in China calls for cease-fire in Ukraine, peace talks by 04_STI

Here's how I see the peace talks playing out:

Xi: Maybe give Russia what they want and have a ceasefire

Zelenskyy: Fuck that. Praise the lord and pass the ammunition.

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Available_Ad1130 t1_j9st7ph wrote

Didn’t know Zelenskyy was a Tom Mac Donald fan lol.

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Ipokeyoumuch t1_j9sww89 wrote

Funny thing is that China really doesn't want to acknowledge the annexations and referendums since it is contrary to their One China policy with Taiwan. At the same time they know they are slowly being economically encircled with their actions (aka they antagonized South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, The Philippines, Malaysia, India, etc.) and need a semi-strong ally in the region, which is Russia. At the same time there are some historical claims and tensions with Russia.

That is why China has taken a more ambivalent stance (i.e. abstaining instead of voting for Russia) during most of this conflict than most people realize.

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mechanicalcontrols t1_j9uzve2 wrote

>Funny thing is that China really doesn't want to acknowledge the annexations and referendums since it is contrary to their One China policy with Taiwan.

Actually to the contrary I think China wants nothing more than Russia to succeed to justify China's own desires to annex sovereign nations that were historically their territory.

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Ipokeyoumuch t1_j9v1i6r wrote

Technically, China doesn't want to annex Taiwan per se because they already have the view that they "own" Taiwan. Thus, no annexation needed as Taiwan is just a "rebellious" providence that just so happens not to listen to the CCP. To annex means to acknowledge that Taiwan isn't under China's own control ab initio, thus no One China exists, but rather two Chinas exists., which contradicts their position. Taiwan also has the One China policy as well and as such it becomes a big elephant in the room that doesn't get acknowledged in day to day life unless saber rattling or some political maneuvering is needed.

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mechanicalcontrols t1_j9v5lqx wrote

Okay, but the international community would still view it as annexation so China is praying western aid for Ukraine wanes and Russia keeps the Donbass.

That said, if the Western aid to Ukraine is slow boiling a frog, I can damn near guarantee you the response to an invasion of Taiwan would be more like pan searing a steak.

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