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westplains1865 t1_ixmsj3e wrote

Reply to comment by [deleted] in Ukraine works to restore power after bruising Russian attack by LieutJimDangle

There is no military option where Russia will prevail. None. Ukraine has the support of the west ranging from funds, weapons, ammo and aid. Russia lost its strategic initiative and goals when the couldn't simply sweep in and install a puppet government. Russia is cut off from most of the rest of the world, under heavy sanctions. Ukrainian military morale is still high while Russian morale is very poor. "The inevitable" is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine; its only a matter of when and not if.

This is not just Ukrainian propaganda, just an honest appraisal of the military situation both sides face.

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Kidrellik t1_ixmyi5m wrote

I'm just gonna copy and paste my other text but people really don't seem to understand the situation that well.

General Mark Milley said that both sides probably lost around a 100k soldiers in causalities but it's probably higher on the Ukrainian side now since they're on the offensive against dug in Russian troops with the artillery advantage. Now this wouldn't be a problem if the both had a similar population but they don't, Ukraine has about 39 million people compared to Russias 143 million. That means that a single Ukrainian soldier is a lot more valuable then a Russian one so it's really more like Ukraine is losing 3.5 soldiers for every Russian soldier they take out.

Now Russia went in with like 220k soldiers and Ukraine had a generally mobilization process which gave then a 3 or 4 to 1 man power advantage by mid war, that why they were able to pull off that massive offencive in Kharkov but Russia has mobilized 300k troops and there are rumors that they'll mobilize another 400 to 600k soldiers, taking away that manpower advantage Ukraine had. They also bought millions of shells for pennies on the dollar and artillery is one of the few things thar kept them alive and somewhat balanced off the Ukrainian man power advantage so with in a year, they'll have both the manpower and artillery advantage.

In the long term, Ukraine needs to inflict 3 or 4 to 1 causalities against the Russians to maintain the war effort, it certainly doesn't look good for Ukraine if the causalities are somewhat equal and that's just the hard truth of the matter.

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TechyDad t1_ixng2he wrote

It doesn't matter how many soldiers Russia sends if they don't have weaponry, training, ammunition, food, etc.

There are many accounts of new Russian conscripts being given a week or less of training and then sent to the front lines with barely functioning weapons. Russia's top tank brigade - the one that supposedly was trained to go toe to toe with NATO forces - was routed so badly that they abandoned their tanks. (Well, what tanks weren't destroyed.)

Russia is having severe problems supplying their troops. If they can't fix this then it doesn't matter how many soldiers they send into combat. Those soldiers will get killed/captured by Ukrainian forces.

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Kidrellik t1_ixnhaau wrote

Dude, you've been on waaay to much Ukrainian propaganda on reddit if you really think that's true. Russia, the second largest military industrial complex in the world with enough backlog of Soviet gear to arm every citizen multiple times over and being the largest artillery army in the world, can't train, equip or have enough ammo for their soldiers? I mean come on dude, even you have to realize how little that makes sense considering it's been 8 months of war at this point and they haven't run out of anything.

Yea and Ukraine was tossing in 45 year old teachers with 5 days training into Severodonetsk to get blown apart by artillery. Mobilization is hard for everyone but Russia doesn't have America helping them out.

This was like 6 months ago and they did because they ran out of fuel because of bad initial planning. We're far beyond that stage at this point.

False. If you could feed, equip and train 99/100 troops but that 1 soldiers makes a video talking about not being trained or properly fed then doesn't mean the entire army has that problem. They also have winter to do all that as well.

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TechyDad t1_ixnqett wrote

This isn't Ukrainian propaganda. It's pretty well known facts. Russia's vehicles went out to battle with major, preventable issues due to poor maintenance due on large part to massive corruption in Russia. (Money earmarked for repairs was pocketed by various people along the way ) They were unable to provide a decent supply chain to their troops.

They are running low on munitions and weaponry to the point that they're taking WW2 era tanks out of mothballs and sending them to the field. The sanctions mean that Russia can't get the high tech parts they need for modern weaponry so they've been scavenging CPUs from washing machines and getting weapons from North Korea and Iran.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian troops have been training with NATO. NATO countries, like the UK, will take Ukrainian troops to their country (away from the conflict), train them for 6 months, and then send them back to Ukraine.

Russia has been losing territory quickly to Ukrainian forces. At this point, Russia's only hope is to bomb civilian infrastructure to try to break the country because they can't match up with the Ukrainian forces.

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Kidrellik t1_ixntp96 wrote

Dude, almost everything you just said is exactly Ukrainian propaganda lol. Russia sent out a bunch of vehicles with enough fuel and logistics for 3 days and about week into the invasion, a whole lot of them were abandoned because they had no fuel, hence the videos of Ukrainian tractors pulling them to Ukrainian lines. That issue is over now since they're now in it for the long haul.

What ww2 tank are they using? I've been following this war since like the beginning and the worst is some t 50s which were are previous generation tanks but still do the job of heavy Armour well enough. They would get torn apart by an Abrams but America isn't sending those to Ukraine since Ukraine, like Russia, is a Soviet army. And buying cheap drones and millions of shells from your allies isn't exactly anything new in warfare.

NATO has trained maybe 10 to 20k Ukrainian troops so far. Ukraine has an army of 600 to 700k. That's a drop in the bucket right there.

Russia has been losing territory because of the massive Ukrainian manpower advantage which has been taking heavy causalities because Russia still has the firepower and artillery advantage. But the problem is thar Ukraine has already mobilized just about every person they could, Russia has not.

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