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RoozGol t1_jdxr3nd wrote

Failed? Has the crime not been constantly falling from the 80's? It started to pick up on again due to policy change. Data is clear

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andydh96 t1_jdxsba5 wrote

Crime as a whole rose nationally during COVID. It's disingenuous (and incorrect) to imply that the increase in crime here is solely because of bail reform when crime also increased in non-bail reform states/cities.

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mehkindaok t1_jdy20y8 wrote

Crime as a whole rose nationally when it got decriminalized.

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TheAJx t1_jdymigp wrote

Okay, well COVID is over for most sane people now and has been for about a year. How do we address the issue of elevated levels of crime in this city?

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SuckMyBike t1_jdz3tho wrote

>How do we address the issue of elevated levels of crime in this city?

Let's do that!

Criminologists have been in near uniform agreement for a while now: the biggest cause of crime is poverty.

So if you have any proposals on how to reduce poverty, I'd love to hear them

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TheAJx t1_je08m0y wrote

How about this, can we address the proximate issues of crime, getting multiple time offenders off the streets, stopping shoplifters etc while we take on the huge task of reordering society to reduce poverty?

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SuckMyBike t1_je0iht4 wrote

It sounds like you only want to do the first and not the second.

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TheAJx t1_je0k68k wrote

I would like to do both, mainly because they are both important goals independent of each other.

I'm not particularly convinced about the povert -> crime argument in this case, given that poverty rates went down during COVID thanks to massive government cash infusions.

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SuckMyBike t1_je0kwe5 wrote

How on earth can someone in 2023 still question the direct correlation between poverty and crime?!
What the fuck .. this is basic knowledge amongst criminologists. Have you never spoken to one?

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TheAJx t1_je0oeiu wrote

Bangladesh and Ghana are pretty poor, but not particularly violent either.

Poverty went Down during COVID yet crime skyrocketed. Poverty went up significantly in 2008 but crime did not spike at nearly the same levels (and went down within a year or two).

> Have you never spoken to one?

You guys are all the same, thinking that sociology professors have all the answers to society's problems. Crimnologists have also found that hiring more police on the streets leads to less crime. Are you in favor of that?

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SuckMyBike t1_je0oom1 wrote

>Crimnologists have also found that hiring more police on the streets leads to less crime.

Actually, criminologists concistently find that repression is a very weak correlator with reducing crime rates.

But what do you care. You just invent your own facts based on your gut feeling and then think you know everything. Fuck off

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NetQuarterLatte t1_je0jz62 wrote

COVID happened worldwide, but crimes didn’t rise worldwide.

If your logic about the bail reform is right, then you must also conclude that COVID is not what caused crimes to rise.

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andydh96 t1_je0ttky wrote

You either didn't ready my comment carefully or purposely misinterpreted it, so I'll make it easier for you.

I said bail reform is not the SOLE CAUSE of crime increase -- that's easy to see from crime stats nationally that likewise show increases in non-bail reform states and locales. But neither did I say that COVID was the sole cause -- that too would be disingenuous and an overly-simplistic conclusion (same as your stance which seems to be only blaming bail reform). Effects can have multiple causes -- this is why statistical analyses exist to calculate how much of the increase we can attribute to one factor versus another.

I would suggest against looking at global crime statistics, its like comparing apples and oranges (besides the fact that reported data for many countries are unreliable). Too many different variables across countries makes the comparison far less useful than comparing among states for making policy decisions based off those statistical trends.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_je1oi53 wrote

The gist is that you were trying to associate covid and crimes.

I get that you’re saying it’s not the sole cause, but even if factually true (your statement would still be technically true if Covid was not a cause at all), it’s still misleading in the overarching context of the conversation.

Even in the US, Covid didn’t hit every city at the same time. The staggered manner in which Covid hit US locations can be used to show a causal relationship of Covid and Crimes, if that exists. However there’s basically no evidence of that.

In fact, NYC got Covid waves earlier than most cities. But even in 2022 we had crimes still rising in NYC faster than other big cities like LA, Chicago and Miami.

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andydh96 t1_je26v7v wrote

I'm sorry but objectively speaking, what you are saying isn't fully accurate. COVID shut down the national economy. As is typically the case when the economy and employment rates decline, crime goes up and COVID and its short term effects were no exception. Making it sound like we should be beyond COVID is a bit of an over-simplification -- yes in theory we are beyond the pandemic stage but we are still suffering from indirect effects particularly with the economy, supply-chain issues, etc. I think sane minds can agree the economy still hasn't recovered fully. Just because we aren't dealing with something in our faces doesn't mean its effects aren't there. The timing of the COVID waves too isn't really relevant - neither NYC nor the rest of the country operates within its own bubble, just not how society or economies work. When NYC shut down first, it still had ripple effects across the country despite the virus not being nationally widespread yet.

On an aside, I also question the validity of your statement about our crime rates increasing at a larger rate compared to other large US cities but I don't have hard statistics to support my skepticism. Care to link for my own education?

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NetQuarterLatte t1_je36b3j wrote

Here's a comparison of the increase in violent felonies across those cities during 2022 compared to 2021: https://imgur.com/a/YbvYifw

If your hypothesis linking of Covid to crimes depends on the economy, you can look at the economy directly. Poverty in the US dropped to 20-year lows (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPAAUS00000A156NCEN) during Covid. That puts a dent in the supposed link between economics and crimes nationwide.

But crimes, in NYC at least, climbed to 20-year highs for some crimes.

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casanovaelrey t1_jdxulur wrote

I would answer this but the person right below you (above this answer) answered what I would have said.

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