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Unfocusedbrain t1_jae7e6m wrote

I dont know if “realistic” would be appropriate word for this since we dont know what -will- happen in the next 5-10 years. Though this is probably the most reasonable view of AI yet of anyone who posted on this board.

Anyone who’s been on the internet since the very beginning understands how (paradoxically) drastic, yet invisibly, the creeping change on the internet has been. Some times I have to step back from everything just for the question ‘how did things changes so drastically? what the fuck happened?’ to come into my head.

Same thing is happening with AI. People who understand concepts like the singularity notice these changes, but for the laymen who are focused on their daily struggles and routine wont even notice anything but useful tools and entertainment available to them.

I would wager within half a decade a multi-model proto-agi will be available that could do all the cognitive tasks a human can do at least at acceptable (but not necessarily extraordinary) levels. Not within a year, thats bonkers.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_jae8yaq wrote

>I would wager within half a decade a multi-model proto-agi will be available that could do all the cognitive tasks a human can do at least at acceptable (but not necessarily extraordinary) levels. Not within a year, thats bonkers.

Did I imply that in my post somewhere? I don't mean anything that capable within the year, I'm saying a drastic change in the average person's life caused directly by the impact AI will have this year when the "next gen" is in-your-face on search engines and widely used instead of our primitive search today.

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Unfocusedbrain t1_jaebvqz wrote

I agree with you and I apologize if it seemed like I was implying you were giving a deadline for AGI. That was not my intention. I just liked your realistic perspective on AI progress, instead of the “AGI is < 10 years away! Can’t wait!” hype that some people have.

And yes, there will be a huge change on the web soon, similar to the iPhone and social media revolution in 2008. It’s not only Google and Microsoft - many other companies are working on LLM-enhanced search engines. We don’t know how that will affect the world, but I think it will speed up AGI research and make the world even more different than before and after social media & smartphones.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_jaecxy9 wrote

Oh ok, I thought maybe I made a slip in my post somewhere implying that.

But yeah, I think although we will all adapt very quickly to this upcoming shift to how we access the internet, I think in hindsight it will be one of the big moments we remember for the rest of our lives.

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