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boredapril t1_j7vbrme wrote

Reply to comment by Sad_Laugh_8337 in Generative AI comes to User Interface design! This is crazy. by RegularConstant

It’s starting to get a little concerning… what will these people do? UBI needs to be implemented in the next 2-3 years.

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clearlylacking t1_j7vxqfk wrote

I'm hedging my bets by learning to deal drugs

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JLockrin t1_j7y4o3u wrote

Jail time with 3 square meals a day. You’re after the OG UBI I see!

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thehearingguy77 t1_j7zf899 wrote

Have they published “Dealing Drugs - For Dummies” yet? It’s only time. (Just kidding with you. I’m not insulting you.)

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j7vjn61 wrote

>UBI needs to be implemented in the next 2-3 years.

Respectfully, I think this is a bit of an overreaction.

The unemployment rate is at a historic low right now and as impressive as technological progress has been the last few years, I think you're seriously overestimating how fast that progress is made and how fast it is adopted by organizations.

And in regards to UI designers, someone on this thread pointed out how this is AI only automates the most basic aspects of the job.

Edit: I've noticed I'm getting downvoted. I'm just going to say one thing: if you wholeheartedly believe an universal basic income will be a necessity in just 2-3 YEARS, you're not thinking rationally. 2-3 years is nothing.

You guys just love upvoting comments that sound nice to you (even if they're crazy) and downvoting comments that don't sound nice to you (even if they make sense). That's my main gripe with this sub. Emotion supercedes logic here.

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burnt_umber_ciera t1_j7vnvsl wrote

Your response to UBI is necessary in 2-3 years is to say look at the current employment rate? This doesn’t address at all that we are in the slope of the exponential curve now. Just look how fast GPT is being incorporated into MSFT. Even if you assume that process started with GPT-3 in 2020 we are basically 2-3 years out from that. These advances are only accelerating and being adopted at an ever increasing pace. I would be very surprised if large segments of the workforce were not displaced by AI by 2025.

This forum generates a lot of this discussion because it has attracted people who have thought a lot about this topic and see where it’s headed and how quickly.

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j7vs4gv wrote

>I would be very surprised if large segments of the workforce were not displaced by AI by 2025.

If I had to hazard a guess, most AI researchers and economists would very much disagree with this take.

And I think you're underestimating the complexity of those jobs.

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Lawjarp2 t1_j7ydz0s wrote

People confuse full replacement with unemployment. You don't need AGI if you don't replace everyone. There will be large unemployment by end of this decade. Large enough to make governments do something about it

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FattThor t1_j7vycf3 wrote

You’re making a huge assumption that these technologies will result in unemployment with no actual evidence. It could just as easily turn out that instead of using current “manual” framework stacks to build apps, SWEs adapt to use an AI stack and just build more apps better and faster.

I’m all for UBI if it turns out it’s actually needed because we ended up creating cornucopia machines. But while unemployment is single digits its pretty silly to call for it.

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burnt_umber_ciera t1_j7w0ki0 wrote

Sure, I’m extrapolating and using my knowledge of economics, business, AI, human psychology, etc. It’s a hypothesis based on the universe of facts that I believe relevant. It’s not an assumption out of thin air. It’s possible I’m wrong I will grant that.

However, I was taking issue with a post that seemed to think it was highly unlikely that UBI would be necessary in 2-3 years and the reasoning presented for that conclusion. I think it is certainly within a reasonable degree of probability that many jobs will in fact be displaced faster than others being created elsewhere and that could occur in 2-3 years.

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LickyAsTrips t1_j7w1c58 wrote

> unemployment rate is at a historic low right now

A big percentage of that are shit jobs, without a living wage, with little to no benefits, and people trying to string together gig economy jobs to keep from starving.

I work in a sector historically known for for its slow to adapt approach and old school ways. They are scrambling to implement everything they can yesterday.

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qa_anaaq t1_j7xfuq6 wrote

This is a reasonable response and the downvoting is cultish.

Things need to be thought through to logical ends. If say 20% of the labor force was knocked out of employment due to AI over a 2-3 year period, the loss in income tax and the spike in foreclosures would critically injure our economy. Nobody would buy things, so companies couldn't afford to hire for even menial roles.

Technological advances have only augmented and opened labor markets. Sure, the automobile industry killed the horse carriage industry, but did the ramifications of that show any threat to society in hindsight? Why is AI the magic pill that suddenly destroys this pattern?

Eh whatever.

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Lawjarp2 t1_j7ye9sl wrote

Because there were always things that humans could do. With AGI it can adapt faster than we can. So every new job could also be done by AGI.

The society is based on necessity and if middle class is no longer necessary, which seems to be the case, why not go back to feudalism? It truly doesn't matter if everyone gets to live well and spawn future generations or only a few do. It will all be forgotten in the end.

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Artanthos t1_j7w9bug wrote

  1. I would give it closer to 15-20 years. Congress won’t act until it’s turns into a widespread disaster.
  2. UBI, if it happens, will be a stripped down version of current welfare systems. It won’t be free money.
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jetstobrazil t1_j7wrreg wrote

If we vote for someone legendary like a Bernie we could prob get it before the water wars

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Artanthos t1_j7zvxth wrote

You would need to replace 15-20 people in the Senate and probably the same number in the House.

People willing to radically restructure the tax code and entitlement programs.

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jetstobrazil t1_j7zxfeb wrote

Totally, it would definitely necessitate someone hitting the campaign trail with bully pulpit against those corporatist senators and washing in those willing to primary them and enact progressive reform. Lot of things have to go right, but the support is there nationwide, even to flip seats with the right campaign.

Nearly inconceivable but not quite impossible .

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Capitaclism t1_j7x723m wrote

It doesn't matter what congress gives or doesn't, what matters is the amount of goods and services. More currency and the same supply = higher prices. No one is better, really, a once people with savings get the idea money flees, the currency goes into a doom loop of purchasing power loss.

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SoulGuardian55 t1_j7w3306 wrote

Some people around or my age group (late-teens to mid-20's) already think about adaptation in such new reality.

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Capitaclism t1_j7x6v64 wrote

It can't, not unless real AI goes for energy and food production, increasing it by a very significant degree.

That is the foundation of any economy, and it looks like it's nowhere close to that.

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nikolameteor t1_j87qr84 wrote

I don't think UBI's gonna happen any sooner than 10 years until we see massive job layoffs and people start to protest on the street.

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