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TotalMegaCool t1_jdztp8b wrote

Reply to comment by Sure_Cicada_4459 in If you went to college, GPT will come for your job first by blueberryman422

I am well aware of the capabilities of AI and the likely immergance of AGI in the coming decade. I said a couple of decades because eventually we may have AGI's and robotics that are able to do everything a human can do better, buts its going to take at least two decades.

Even if we developed an AGI tomorrow, it would likely be on a massive server. It will take at least 5 years to be able to deploy something that large on a mobile platform for edge computing. Add to this the fact that robotics are nowhere near as capable or flexible as a human. Its likely going to be another decade before we see humanoid robotics that rival a real human, and another 5 years of building the infrastructure to mass produce them on a scale to replace the human workforce.

Yes, if you have an office job that does not require a robotic body you may be replaced by an AI sooner. But thats the point I was trying to make, If you dont change and adapt you are going to quickly be unemployed. If you do adapt and change with the times, at least for the next couple of decades you are going to be fine. There is too much work that needs to be done that can't be automated by a server based AGI.

The next big growth industry is going to be building the future Utopia and all the automated systems so we can then worry about what we do when we are out the job. Its going to happen over the next couple of decades, if you adapt you can be part of it, if you cant you are going to struggle. Maybe we can support a UBI before we build the automated Utopia, but I would rather be part of building it.

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Sure_Cicada_4459 t1_jdzyefd wrote

We have different timelines it seems, hence why "you will be fine in the next few decades" which I interpret as "you will be able to do a meaningful economic task in some new niche" seems far fetched to me. My thought process is that the span of tasks that cover this is gigantic and would collapse most meaningful cognitive tasks into busy work. Which includes scientists, education, IT, psychology, roboticist,...

I am not saying we have AGI tomorrow, I am saying we will have AGI faster then any cognitive worker can realistically and sustainably pivot professions or someone can get themselves a degree. Also it is worth pointing out that the cognitive is the bottleneck on the mechanical. Even if we don't take into account that solving cognitive scarcity would mean the optimization problem of constructing efficient, cheap and useful robots is a matter of iteration and prompting, intelligently piloting even a badly designed and limited robot is much easier and yields much more useful applications then for example a dumb AI pilot piloting a hyper advanced fighter jet. Which in turn feedback loops in how permissible and cheap your designs for robots can get and so on.... And that doesn't even take into account the change in monetary incentives as that will attract massively more investment then there is now, breakthroughs and incentive evolve jointly after all.

GPT-4 runs on a big server and yet it still delivers reliable service to million, I don't think this will be a meaningful bottleneck, at least not one that should set your expectations for the next decades as any but "my niche has very limited shelf life and adaptation stretches plausibility instead of willingness or ability."

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