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TotalMegaCool t1_jdwgwwf wrote

If you went to college and actually learned how to educate yourself, think logically and complete something complex by breaking it down into smaller tasks. Then you will do fine over the next few decades regardless of what happens, as long as you keep learning new things and adapting to change.

People who learned how to do something 10 years ago and have not improved since, and plan on the world standing still with them are going to get a massive wakeup call in the next 24 months.

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MultiverseOfSanity t1_jdxjtmh wrote

Yep. If you're in computer science and worried you'll be replaced, you were never gonna make it in this field anyway, so it didn't matter.

Entry level positions and internships will be in rough shape though.

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Sure_Cicada_4459 t1_jdzoc3j wrote

Not if AI learns to "logically and complete something complex by breaking it down into smaller tasks." and "keep learning new things and adapting to change". That's the point, the fact that you can run fast is irrelevant if the treadmill you are running on is accelerating at an increasing rate. The lessons people should really have learned by now is that every cognitive feat seems replicable, we are just benchmarks and we know what tends to happen to those lately.

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TotalMegaCool t1_jdztp8b wrote

I am well aware of the capabilities of AI and the likely immergance of AGI in the coming decade. I said a couple of decades because eventually we may have AGI's and robotics that are able to do everything a human can do better, buts its going to take at least two decades.

Even if we developed an AGI tomorrow, it would likely be on a massive server. It will take at least 5 years to be able to deploy something that large on a mobile platform for edge computing. Add to this the fact that robotics are nowhere near as capable or flexible as a human. Its likely going to be another decade before we see humanoid robotics that rival a real human, and another 5 years of building the infrastructure to mass produce them on a scale to replace the human workforce.

Yes, if you have an office job that does not require a robotic body you may be replaced by an AI sooner. But thats the point I was trying to make, If you dont change and adapt you are going to quickly be unemployed. If you do adapt and change with the times, at least for the next couple of decades you are going to be fine. There is too much work that needs to be done that can't be automated by a server based AGI.

The next big growth industry is going to be building the future Utopia and all the automated systems so we can then worry about what we do when we are out the job. Its going to happen over the next couple of decades, if you adapt you can be part of it, if you cant you are going to struggle. Maybe we can support a UBI before we build the automated Utopia, but I would rather be part of building it.

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Sure_Cicada_4459 t1_jdzyefd wrote

We have different timelines it seems, hence why "you will be fine in the next few decades" which I interpret as "you will be able to do a meaningful economic task in some new niche" seems far fetched to me. My thought process is that the span of tasks that cover this is gigantic and would collapse most meaningful cognitive tasks into busy work. Which includes scientists, education, IT, psychology, roboticist,...

I am not saying we have AGI tomorrow, I am saying we will have AGI faster then any cognitive worker can realistically and sustainably pivot professions or someone can get themselves a degree. Also it is worth pointing out that the cognitive is the bottleneck on the mechanical. Even if we don't take into account that solving cognitive scarcity would mean the optimization problem of constructing efficient, cheap and useful robots is a matter of iteration and prompting, intelligently piloting even a badly designed and limited robot is much easier and yields much more useful applications then for example a dumb AI pilot piloting a hyper advanced fighter jet. Which in turn feedback loops in how permissible and cheap your designs for robots can get and so on.... And that doesn't even take into account the change in monetary incentives as that will attract massively more investment then there is now, breakthroughs and incentive evolve jointly after all.

GPT-4 runs on a big server and yet it still delivers reliable service to million, I don't think this will be a meaningful bottleneck, at least not one that should set your expectations for the next decades as any but "my niche has very limited shelf life and adaptation stretches plausibility instead of willingness or ability."

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agonypants t1_jdw39m4 wrote

Office jobs generally don't require expensive or complex robots. Industrial jobs generally will. Right now, AI development has the momentum and as AI tech proves itself, interest will grow in using it to drive robots. Once robots can be produced cheaply, that's when the remaining jobs will begin to erode. The other key is "simple" production meaning robots that use as few parts as possible that are also easy to repair.

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mckirkus t1_jdw4ubt wrote

I think we'll see "design for manufacturing" evolve to assume AI will be part of the manufacturing process. Simply replacing humans with robots isn't where the big gains will come.

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SkyeandJett t1_jdwb3vi wrote

The "easy to repair" part probably isn't as crucial as you think since they'll likely maintain each other.

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Aurelius_Red t1_je0sc20 wrote

Yeah, but when is "when robots can be reproduced quickly"?

It's also a matter of powering them. At present, there's not enough lithium to scale at that breakneck pace. (I mean, maybe there is, but we can't mine it that quickly.) We'd have to invent another kind of battery, I'd imagine.

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agonypants t1_je0w8uo wrote

>we can't mine it (lithium) that quickly

Robotic lithium miners!

>We'd have to invent another kind of battery

Robotic materials research!

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Aurelius_Red t1_je154hy wrote

Not to be an ignorant dumb-dumb, but how'd you add your AGI prediction to your Reddit handle?

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agonypants t1_je1p8p5 wrote

Should be under the "User Flair Preview" on the right side of your Reddit page. The pencil icon lets you edit the "flair."

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HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_jdw6waw wrote

Software is always ahead of hardware, software is more useful for more white collar desk jobs, and hardware is more useful in blue collar physical jobs.

Needless to say, Truckers, Contractors and Garbagemen may be the last people to lose their jobs.

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WATER-GOOD-OK-YES t1_jdwddey wrote

Society mocks truckers and garbagemen. In the future, they will be the ones to have the last laugh.

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28mmAtF8 t1_jdwfvb8 wrote

I don't think society mocks them nearly as much as they perceive. Their management on the other hand, welcome to gaslight city.

(source, have done delivery jobs, worked with truckers and the scumbag management they're usually shafted with)

Edit: Ew, that brings up an uglier point too. If AI is going to take an even more aggressive role in management that means the knock-on effects for blue collar workers won't be all that pleasant either.

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PrivateLudo t1_jdxnc2d wrote

I think society mocks them in some way. Ive worked in those kind of dirty blue collar jobs before and some people straight up told me "when are you going to study and have a real job?" Like…. what the hell???? Im getting paid very well, i dont need to get a "real job". How are those essential jobs not a real job?

Society wouldn’t even be able to function at all without the dirty blue collar jobs. Its just sad that society promotes jobs in finance that dont really contribute anything aside from numbers going up meanwhile plumbers, electricians, mechanics, janitors are seen as bottom of the barrel and low iq works. Theyre the foundations of this society, nothing would work without them.

There’s a big sense of delusion in society where people subconsciously feel superior intellectually because they’re doing a clean office job.

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CrazyShrewboy t1_jdxql3v wrote

its because it takes way more perceived effort and way less people are willing to climb the enormous mountain of working a complex highly educated job.

But anyone can do blue collar work (as long as they are physically able) so the people working those jobs are less refined. They dont have as good soft skills, social skills, etc. But they are still good at solving problems and as you said they are essential.

Ive worked blue and white collar and they both have lots of pros and cons, but white collar is much better once you are experienced in your field

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PrivateLudo t1_jdy672b wrote

I understand your point. I just wish people respected those kind of jobs more. Nothing wrong doing those kinds of jobs, not everybody wants to be a flashy businessman, designer or silicon valley techie

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Azuladagio t1_jdxrst9 wrote

Don't worry, AI won't be arrogant like them when they inevitably get replaced by it.

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Rofel_Wodring t1_jdwdxax wrote

For about eighteen months, tops. Assuming they're one of the lucky ones who weren't undercut by some desperate nursing school dropout willing to work for peanuts.

Actually, trucker might go by faster than even garbageman. I can totally imagine a setup where you have a camera mounted on the car that's also connected to a mountable robot that's attached to and directly manipulates the drive train. Such a setup wouldn't even require the employer to buy new vehicles, just the drive train parasite.

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CravingNature t1_jdwkdpq wrote

> Assuming they're one of the lucky ones who weren't undercut by some desperate nursing school dropout willing to work for peanuts.

This is key. Supply and demand. Wages will drop all around from decreased supply and increased demand.

If Universal Healthcare and UBI aren't top issues in the next election we are more trouble than most expect.

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shmoculus t1_jdxtjsa wrote

I think the problem is that if other jobs get automated out, there will be a lot of competition for the existing jobs which will drive wages into the ground.

So a future without UBI and sufficient new human jobs will be really bad for existing wage growth in existing roles as people retrain into whatever they need to.

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FoodMadeFromRobots t1_jdxwpq8 wrote

Contractors yah i agree i think that will be almost last on the list. Truckers and garbage men? Idk, i'll be honest in saying i was too optimistic on the self driving car timeline and thought we would have cracked it by now but i feel with recent advances thats coming sooner than later and then arguably 95% of garbage collection (at least where i live) could be automated the second you get the self driving down. Its normally just a truck that pulls up and uses a mechanical arm to dump the bin. If you added some degrees of motion/made the claw more nuanced it could pick up random objects besides the bins. Realize there are a lot of edge cases but once you get a program that can drive the car and identify trash/vs not trash you've got the vast majority covered.

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reptilot t1_jdy8nas wrote

> Needless to say, Truckers, Contractors and Garbagemen may be the last people to lose their jobs.

The irony that Yang campaigned so hard on truckers being first on the chopping block.

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Grand_Milk63 t1_jdzwoss wrote

I don’t know. Self driving vehicles will probably be here eventually. My garbage men don’t get out of the truck unless they really need to and usually they leave the items not in a standard can.

I live in suburbs so

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Artanthos t1_jdxg3un wrote

Think about how many jobs could be automated out of existence today by someone proficient with Excel or a well written database.

Think about how long this capability has existed.

Think about the rate at which it has actually taken place.

It’s less about “can AI do this” and more about how long will it take for businesses to adopt and integrate the technology.

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bullettrain1 t1_jdxhvan wrote

Very true. I’ve noticed lots of people use this argument for why their employment isn’t threatened anytime soon. I’m sure it’s true. Personally, I would find very little comfort in that being the foundation for job security.

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Artanthos t1_je0sc95 wrote

Some places will adopt the technology faster than others, and those jobs will be at risk.

But it won’t be everywhere all at once.

Just like software automation has been displacing jobs for a few decades now.

The biggest difference is, far fewer new jobs will be created. One of the jobs most subject to future automation is the people automating software.

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bullettrain1 t1_je0x1hm wrote

Yep, sounds right to me. I’ve been an employed developer for 10+ years, I’ll have work in the near future, sure. But I see what’s coming. And it’s possible that timeline is shorter than I realize. The people that think it won’t impact them are fooling themselves.

One prediction that stuck with me is this. Rather than huge layoffs in a short amount of time, we’ll see a 2% workforce reduction each year moving forward, and it won’t bounce back. That’s the most likely estimate I’ve heard so far.

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Bloorajah t1_jdwy1g2 wrote

lol okay

Not everyone who went to college has a job where all they do is computer bs all day

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GodOfThunder101 t1_jdxpota wrote

If you went to college you will be more prepared for the new jobs Ai will bring.

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manubfr t1_jdzqpdq wrote

I did go to university but I dropped out... checkmate, AI!

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zeychelles t1_je0n67c wrote

Same. People thought we were slobs, in reality we were just thinking ahead, pft

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Image-Fickle t1_jdwmg5d wrote

If you went to chat gpt your job will come for your college first

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Apollo_XXI t1_jdyx929 wrote

The irony

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liameymedih0987 t1_jdz72wj wrote

And then it will come for people who literally dig shit. No one is safe. There is no happy future for humanity.

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waytogokody t1_jdz3zzn wrote

Hooray! Vindication for my lack of drive and future sense!

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Canigetyouanything t1_jdz87wl wrote

What about the chaos that would brew and explode, it would be rioting on an unprecedented level. The people will likely go on the hunt in numbers that no military or police would even feel right about stopping. Like zombie appocalypse AI smackdown. Seek and destroyyya ha ha ha haaa!!

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