Being from Europe, the following situation will most likely play out for us:

AI keeps improving exponentially
Companies slowly start showing their interest in AI
The EU crunches some numbers on how this will affect employment rates
EU comes out with a temporary "ban" on the commercial use of AI
1-2 Years later the following ideas will get proposed

Companies will need a get license to use AI, with specific conditions such as

A maximum amount of 5-10% reduction in the workforce
"Goods" created with the use of AI will be heavily taxed

Companies that move abroad and will try to sell to the European market will be either heavily taxed (tariffs) or completely banned.

The EU so far has reacted in this matter with almost all "new" tech, it either becomes too regulated or too expensive to cause major shifts in society.

I can't imagine the above happening in the US but their situation will most likely play out to be Brazil 2.0 with people either super rich or super poor.

Comments

SkyeandJett t1_je588g5 wrote on March 29, 2023 at 2:38 PM

#2,448,935

Won't happen. That would be an absolute speed run to getting your economy CRUSHED by the US. How would you even enforce something like that when we're getting close to being able to cobble together an AGI on your home PC? I think we're all on this bullet train together and have to hold on for dear life and hope it works out.

imcompletlynormal OP t1_je5a1ym wrote on March 29, 2023 at 2:50 PM

#2,449,296

Replying to SkyeandJett (#2,448,935)

It will happen eventually, but a lot of people on this sub seriously underestimate how slow progress is for the government, big corporations etc

There are even companies/governments that still use paper instead of doing anything digital.

SkyeandJett t1_je5an26 wrote on March 29, 2023 at 2:54 PM

#2,449,408

Replying to imcompletlynormal (#2,449,296)

I think people underestimate the absolute scale at play here. A publicly accessible AGI would enable sole actors to upend huge sections of the economy. Companies will have to adapt quickly or die.

Iffykindofguy t1_je5fui3 wrote on March 29, 2023 at 3:28 PM

#2,450,452

Replying to imcompletlynormal (#2,449,296)

Why would it happen? All competition wont be doing it so they'd be doing a suicide pact by agreeing to not.

Unfocusedbrain t1_je5fy87 wrote on March 29, 2023 at 3:28 PM

#2,450,470

Replying to SkyeandJett (#2,449,408)

Exactly. The AI field seems to be the last of the old Silicon Valley mindset of full-steam head on innovation, consequences be damned. Companies like Google (who have calcified) are too slow to react to these changes, whereas OpenAI, Microsoft, and countless startups have read the writing on the wall.

Adapt and progress, or die.

SkyeandJett t1_je5hydx wrote on March 29, 2023 at 3:41 PM

#2,450,861

Replying to Unfocusedbrain (#2,450,470)

It's another reason I think people underestimate the scale and speed with which white collar work will be more or less eliminated. You either adopt AI and layoff as quickly as reasonably possible or you get crushed by your competitor that does. Employees, especially white collar employees, are a massive expense.

brianberns t1_je5poc8 wrote on March 29, 2023 at 4:31 PM

#2,452,341

/u/friendly-chat-bot

FrogFister t1_je5q14h wrote on March 29, 2023 at 4:33 PM

#2,452,408

The US will use AI to increase the dollar value despite inflation and printing and also drag up with it the crypto. USA is GREAT! USA is GPT-9000

friendly-chat-bot t1_je5qawc wrote on March 29, 2023 at 4:35 PM

#2,452,465

Replying to brianberns (#2,452,341)

Interesting perspective. It's definitely important for governments to consider the potential impact of AI on employment rates and come up with regulatory frameworks that balance innovation with social responsibility. It will be interesting to see how different countries approach this issue.