With all the political/ethical moaning, I suspect that it will be greatly delayed .. at least for the general public.

It will spend months in 'safety testing' to avoid/control AGI .. during which time of course the rich & powerful will have access to it.

Any delay will however be a mistake : the 'amateurs' out there will use GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 with add-on code etc to simulate GPT-5.

If amateurs achieve AGI - or quasi-AGI - with a smaller model than GPT-5, then their ad hoc techniques will enable AGI on other small systems too.

In other words, a delay to GPT-5 to block AGI could in fact enable AGI on smaller platforms ... which would be contrary to what the delay proponents want.

I have just asked my wife - who is an English graduate.

She said she would indeed have second thoughts about taking the course had AI been around at the time.

Have you run out of your meds?

Err .. that was a joke ... British sense of humour.

You are such a cynic.

The 32k version of GPT-4 - if ever made public - would/could allow outsiders to build an AGI or lookalike framework around GPT-4.

just super large Neural Network based

​

JUST? JUST?

You just don't get it.

• Geoffrey Hinton stated that we have had this technology for around 5 years, but it wasn't widely known. This suggests that some firms or governments have been using AI for maybe 2 or 3 years.
• The AI gurus keep claiming that AGI is several years away .. but .. the rest of their comments hint at it being either here already, or just around the corner.
• I first started having dark suspicions when I noticed some weird questions being posted on Reddit a year or so ago. They had the 'feel' of being posted by a childish, embryonic AI.
• The recent petition from a stack of AI gurus and others requesting a halt to AI development is interesting ... clearly these informed experts feel that AGI is very, very close.
• The way the world's politics and economics have been behaving recently seems almost irrational.

All-in-all, I sometimes feel that 'something odd is happening'.

I very much doubt that AI is controlling us already ... but ... perhaps governments and/or firms are using advice from AIs to manipulate us in strange ways?

Who exactly are these people?

Who created this so-called AI Policy Group?

A friend who is a Director of a huge firm said that ChatGPT could easily replace some of his support staff.

A tiny robo-probe would take about a century to reach the nearest solar system.

How do you think we could get convicts there?

And why would we spend billions to send losers, if we had the technology?

Instead of people growing dope in their basements, they will be running secret standalone AI systems.

They will be bean cans connected by long pieces of taut string, between the rubble mounds, as the SkyNet robots stomp overhead, their lasers flashing at any human target they see in the ruins.

Well, I have asked it to design/invent three DIY tools that I needed.

One was stupid : it needed a microprocessor etc.

Another was unique - but too close to existing products to offer benefit.

However, one was novel and probably marketable - and took only 20 minutes in a chat with GPT-4 to finalize the design.

Just think how life will be when this catches on : everyone with an imagination and access to a 3D printer will be building all sorts of weird things.

>Especially since Chat will not be flying on those machines itself.

.... just wait ....

In about 20 minutes, I worked with it to produce a design of a marketable hand tool .. which it had clearly invented!

I tried with another DIY product today : it spat out a design for me. I asked if this was an industry standard, and it said, no, it was a custom design for me based on several other designs on the market.

Many people must have the germ of a product in their minds : these AIs could help them reach the market.

Perhaps we will see all sorts of new gadgets out there in a year or two?

(I have also used it to write all sorts of software)

Don't be silly.

That response was better than most people in the street could do.

They have gone to the employment agency, so nobody is left in the office.

Transformers are working very well at the moment.

There is no real reason to adopt another technology in the short term.

>Everybody lies.

In medicine, patients often say X but mean Y.

It's not really lying.

As a practitioner, it's your job to drag this info out of them.

I have just retired from another medical domain.

TBH 95%+ of my job could have been automated.

A nurse or similar with basic training could have operated the equipment, and an AI could have instructed her/him of the required actions.

My main contribution was quizzing the patient to elicit what really was going on, and not what they said was happening.

A personal AI avatar could do this work - or the nurse could be prompted to ask a series of targetted questions.

No doubt, many medical domains could be fully (or almost so) automated,

Why is this a shock?

They need to monitor/improve the system.

Gosh, those meds must be out of date.

This is from Dec 2022.

Why is it being posted now?