StevieTV t1_iub62c1 wrote on October 29, 2022 at 11:54 PM

The growth of computing power used in AI is currently doubling every 3.4 months.

That means we could see a similar difference in the AI of today and the AI at the end of the 2020s as we saw between computers made in the early 1980s and today.

PrivateLudo OP t1_iub6koi wrote on October 29, 2022 at 11:58 PM

Wow… thats crazy to think about. This decade will be insane

shiddyfiddy t1_iubrr7w wrote on October 30, 2022 at 2:54 AM

It's already got off to a pretty bangin start!

Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iud2x4i wrote on October 30, 2022 at 12:34 PM

Honestly the 2020s has already had way more events than a normal decade has. A global pandemic, the first large european war since WW2, AI content generation revolution.

In the history books of the future the 2000s and 2010s will be 2-3 pages long while the 2020s will have 10-20 pages dedicated to it. "Pages" since I doubt there will be actual physical books of course.

thcthrowaway314 t1_iud96yk wrote on October 30, 2022 at 1:32 PM

You could probably write a whole book on the 2000s/2010s! In the 2000s alone there was the world trade center attack, war in the middle east, dotcom crash of 2000, '08 financial/housing crisis, iphone release/rise of smartphones, social media begins, streaming begins, global internet usage quadruples, etc. I'm not saying we won't have more events happening in 2020s but the 2000s and 2010s were not exactly quiet.

Down_The_Rabbithole t1_iudaaxk wrote on October 30, 2022 at 1:41 PM

That's nothing compared to the 1980s and 1990s though. The collapse of the 2nd world power and an entire ideology and its effects were insane and the 1990s brought the rise of the internet.

The world trade center attacks and middle eastern wars are side notes in history as they didn't really have as big of an impact. It's just that so few important events happened in those decades that they look relatively big, but in the scheme of things they were minor almost irrelevant events.

Smartphones are just a continuation of computer and internet technology, not a real innovation, just a marketing term, same for social media and streaming which were all just continuations of the 1990s World Wide Web and computerization of society.

The 2000s and 2010s were relatively quiet. I'm sure they will be termed "The silent decades" or something in the future due to how little of note happened here. Maybe they will be tainted by the (now naive) assumption of globalism and the world becoming more peaceful on its own over time through trade now that the world is again splitting into two separate economies, those of liberal democracies in the west and authoritarian systems in the east.

thcthrowaway314 t1_iuddhim wrote on October 30, 2022 at 2:06 PM

Isn't most technology just a continuation of past technology? I think we'll have to agree to disagree, the 2000s and 2010s were an extremely transformative period.

Quealdlor t1_iuexwqw wrote on October 30, 2022 at 8:29 PM

I expect gradual slowing down of the doubling in AI compute. The doubling times will be getting longer. So don't expect some miracles to happen by the end of this decade.