Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Mokebe890 t1_irzwmw4 wrote

Here and there for 10 years already, on this sub for one year currently. Im more realistic towards pessimistic now. There is some change in the air but its not advancing as fast as I'd expect it to. Reading breakthrough papers 10 years ago we should really have some proto AGI now, or at least something really autonomous like cars. But we got stable diffusion and DALEE which is also something important. By current frame if we have absolutly nothing by 2030-2035 I will be 100% pessimistic that singularity won't occur in my lifetime.

5

GenoHuman t1_is0lgb7 wrote

I don't think AGI will be here in the 2030s but I do believe that AI competent enough to do most work will be. So being able to live in leisure or at least not having to work 40 hours a week would be fine with me even if AGI never become real in my lifetime.

2

DukkyDrake t1_is2bnnb wrote

>but I do believe that AI competent enough to do most work will be.

That is the likely trajectory of existing progress, anything much beyond that is very speculative at this point.

Just because that capability being developed is more likely than not, it doesn't mean a life of leisure will happen for the avg person. Cultural trajectories are very difficult to alter, the world views of certain subcultures are vehemently against such outcomes. You might have to wait until attrition removes most of the 60s or even the 70s and older generations from the game board before a life of leisure is more likely than not, perhaps another 30-40 years.

>The Economics of Automation: What Does Our Machine Future Look Like?

3