ChronoPsyche t1_itfda77 wrote
Reply to comment by GeneralZain in Given the exponential rate of improvement to prompt based image/video generation, in how many years do you think we'll see entire movies generated from a prompt? by yea_okay_dude
Text-to-video isn't even out yet and what we've seen so far is just very basic interpolation like showing a teddy bear mixing a bowl of Ramen. Things are moving fast but we will not have text-feature length film productions in a year. I'm sorry. That is a fantasy.
GeneralZain t1_itfjgmk wrote
well I guess you will be wrong then.
I've seen it several times this year. The "This wont happen for YEARS!!" take, and guess what? its been wrong a lot recently.
but yeah man you're right...I'm sure this wont age like fine milk in a few months...
ChronoPsyche t1_itfk1rm wrote
I hope I'm wrong because that would be awesome to generate a feature length movie from a line of text, but I probably won't be.
Here's the thing people don't get, we already know more or less what is going to be released next year because we already know more or less what's in the pipeline right now.
The people who didn't think what we have now would be possible were just not informed on the current state of the industry and what was being worked on.
GeneralZain t1_itfkn56 wrote
There are things we don't know about, you shouldn't assume you know everything that's to come.
Its a good way to get blind sided. for example, did you know about gato? did you know about palm? or minerva? or how about stable diffusion? or cog video? or the meta one? or the google video model? why didn't you warn us just before they came out?!?!
You have no idea what they got in the lab that's unreleased/under NDA.
if you think you know exactly what's coming then where are your exact predictions on things to come?
exactly.
ChronoPsyche t1_itflcsu wrote
>did you know about gato? did you know about palm? or minerva? or how about stable diffusion? or cog video? or the meta one? or the google video model? why didn't you warn us just before they came out?!?!
I knew about the state of the technology and what was possible with it. None of what has been released has been surprising in that regard. Nothing has exceeded the current limitations we have, which are memory issues having to do with the running time limitations of our current algorithms.
>You have no idea what they got in the lab that's unreleased/under NDA.
>
>if you think you know exactly what's coming then where are your exact predictions on things to come?
I don't know exactly what's coming when. That's why I'm not making exact predictions. I do know the current state of the technology and without major breakthroughs, there is a limit to how advanced AI will get in the short term.
Sure, Google could theoretically reach said breakthrough behind closed doors, but we don't know when that will happen, and so making precise predictions like "text to feature length movie will happen in one year MAX" despite the fact that the necessary breakthroughs for such a technology to even be feasible haven't been reached yet, is patently ridiculous.
Things happening faster than you thought is not some benchmark you can use to predict the future. There are reasons things happen faster than you thought, and without knowing those reasons, trying to extrapolate the rate of future short-term progress based on past short-term progress is folly.
GeneralZain t1_itfodyy wrote
I don't need to know EXACTLY when or what is going to happen, only that pace of change has increased in will likely continue to increase over time due to, in large part, AI.
we are already working on what's needed to generate long form coherent generated videos. it is literally around the corner, and you don't have to be a psychic to see that it will not take long to happen.
I saw it when generated images first came out and I still see it now...we are about to fall off a cliff of technological change, whether you think its true or not is irrelevant to me :P
what will happen will happen.
but maybe you are right tho...this year so far has totally not been nuts, its absolutelyyy going to slow down...sure.
ChronoPsyche t1_itfr6yb wrote
>I don't need to know EXACTLY when or what is going to happen, only that pace of change has increased in will likely continue to increase over time due to, in large part, AI.
Well that is certainly a change of goal posts. I agree that the pace of change will increase OVER TIME. Long term exponential growth is different than short term.
Predicting text to movie in one year is different than saying it will happen eventually lol. You need specific information to be able to say it will happen in one year, not just a general feeling of being wowed by the pace of technological change. One year is an exceedingly short time frame.
If you ask the people actually working on this stuff, I guarantee even they would not predict that in one year we will be able to type out a prompt and AI will turn it into a coherent feature-length film production.
These are the predictions of people who don't know what they are talking about.
Come back and tell me "I told ya so" if I'm wrong in one year. I'll be more than happy to say you were right.
GeneralZain t1_itftjaw wrote
just so we are clear, I said one year MAX as in it's probably going to happen in less than a year from now.
I never said "oh it will happen eventually". I was referring to pace of change alone for transformational technology development, specifically AI.
yeah one year is a really short time period, I KNOW. that's what I keep reminding you that THIS YEAR WAS INSANE.
it will continue to get more and more insane over time.
that's what leads me to believe it will happen far faster than any realize. look at this year and assume the pace of development stays the same...we are in for a wild ride.
ChronoPsyche t1_itftygh wrote
And as someone who has a better understanding of the current state of technology, I am telling you that what happened this year was predictable based on where the technology was last year. Text to full length coherent movie is not possible next year based on the state of technology this year, unless we have a major breakthrough. You're basically predicting based on feelings. Feelings don't cut it. Sorry.
GeneralZain t1_itk0u8i wrote
haha I'm just pointing out what I'm seeing, no feelings involved at all :)
I cant wait to come back to this post in less than a year to remind you how right I was ;) see you then!
GenoHuman t1_itg0l1f wrote
AI will generate everything, the era of human made content will soon be over. ☝
visarga t1_itgs3bn wrote
People working on AI projects also don't know how they will turn out, it's alchemy. I mean, who among the AI community predicted Alpha GO, GPT-3 and Dall-E? Nobody. Being an expert in the field did not mean they knew what was around the corner.
No_Skin1273 t1_itft4y3 wrote
Text2video already exist, check for yourself:
ChronoPsyche t1_itftlss wrote
I know. I said isn't out. As in its not publicly available yet. And it's very unsophisticated. Like I said.
No_Skin1273 t1_itftu89 wrote
you can already do movie with this even if it's not Netflix quality and if you call that not sophisticated text2image isn't sophisticated
ChronoPsyche t1_itfu7oo wrote
No you can't because this can only generate videos that are minutes long. A movie is by definition 90 minutes or longer. And we are clearly talking about coherent film productions, not something that spans the length of a movie.
If we are changing the definition to something that spans 90 minutes and is motion picture, but could include incoherent dribble, then sure, that will happen soon. In fact, you can already do that with batch processing. Nobody would call that a movie though.
No_Skin1273 t1_itfve2h wrote
where is your proof that it can't do more than 2 minutes for make a video... It's not because they didn't generate one that they can't do it... Even if compute intensive you could do a film with it.
ChronoPsyche t1_itg18gz wrote
>where is your proof that it can't do more than 2 minutes for make a video
....I read the actual research paper...that's how I know. Only one of them can do minutes. The other two can only do seconds at the moment.
For Imagen Video:
>Imagen Video scales from prior
>
>work of 64-frame 128×128 videos at 24 frames per second to 128 frame 1280×768 high-definition
video at 24 frames per second.
128 frames/24 frames per second is a 5 second video.
For Meta
>Given input text x translated by the prior P into
>
>an image embedding, and a desired frame rate f ps, the decoder Dt generates 16 64 × 64 frames,
>
>which are then interpolated to a higher frame rate by ↑F , and increased in resolution to 256 × 256
>
>by SRt
>
>l
>
>and 768 × 768 by SRh, resulting in a high-spatiotemporal-resolution generated video yˆ.
16 frames which they interpolate between to create a few second video.
And then Phenaki, which can generate the longest at a few minutes.
>Generate temporally coherent and diverse videos conditioned on open domain prompts even
>
>when the prompt is a new composition of concepts (Fig. 3). The videos can be long (minutes)
>
>even though the model is trained on 1.4 seconds videos (at 8 fps).
​
>Even if compute intensive you could do a film with it.
...You clearly have no clue what you are talking about. I would suggesting doing some reading on the current state of the tech and also read the actual research papers.
No_Skin1273 t1_itftww0 wrote
the type of silent movies that almost nobody would watch today
No_Skin1273 t1_itfuo4p wrote
also the researche paper IS OUT so... you know, but not opensource the difference is here. For opensource i will probably look at stabilityAI but i think it will be more compute intensive so this will probably and up with something you are gonna need a subscription for.
Shelfrock77 t1_itff8e3 wrote
You say that with certainty bro, you are LITERALLY a hypocrite and you don’t even see it.😭
ChronoPsyche t1_itfjoih wrote
Oh I could definitely be wrong, hence why I'm not saying "anyone who disagrees with me is deluded". Lol.
If I am wrong though it will be the result of some unforseen development, as there is nothing in the works right now that indicates you'll be able to generate an entire feature length movie from a line of text next year.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Saying that "anyone who doesn't buy into extraordinary claims that lack evidence is deluded" is what I took issue with.
Shelfrock77 t1_itfjq0l wrote
same
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