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sumane12 t1_itibds0 wrote

Reply to comment by _dekappatated in What will you do to survive in the time between not needing to work anymore to survive and today? by wilsonartOffic

There's a lot more disruptive technology than Tesla bot coming in around 2 years.

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_dekappatated t1_itifblj wrote

Please elaborate.

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sumane12 t1_itiibn5 wrote

Large language models for starters, they are making it so if you want something all you need to do is ask an AI, this will have an effect on programming jobs, customer service jobs, marketing, ect. Have you seen what people are doing with stable diffusion? 2d and 3d artist's will take a hit, every day there's a new breakthrough in AI it seems, which is amazing, but to think it won't be disruptive or cause job losses, your not looking at the bigger picture.

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_dekappatated t1_itiyl70 wrote

I think these will be excellent tools but they won't replace the need for people knowing how to use them properly. If anything the demand for programmers/technical people is only going to accelerate until we approach singularity.

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sideways t1_itjzi4w wrote

Like most tools, it will allow one person to be as productive as many. What the redundant "many" will do to survive is an open question.

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_dekappatated t1_itk1dr0 wrote

The industrial revolution allowed people to do the work of many, but instead of rampant unemployment more things were produced and created more prosperity. Before then there was no such thing as a middle class. These tools eventually will create even more prosperity. Its not a zero sum game. It increases the size of the pie for everyone.

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sideways t1_itk2ldr wrote

Yes, that's true and in the long run I'm inclined to think that will be the case again. However, we don't live in the "long run" and there could be a lot of very real suffering in the near term.

Also, it's entirely possible that the speed and scale of AGI driven change may be such that historical lessons won't apply.

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sumane12 t1_itkbert wrote

If anything, this cost of living crisis most of the world is suffering through right now, gives people an idea of some short term pain we might have to experience before post scarcity. Our leaders are completely reactionary, covid hit and they gave everyone free money and are now dealing with the fallout after the fact. The same will happen as more and more people are displaced due to automation.

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sideways t1_itkceau wrote

Yeah, it has been an interesting, unintentional trial run. Hopefully the lessons learned can be applied when UBI becomes unavoidable.

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sumane12 t1_itkgtzf wrote

Yea definitely, if we had the production capabilities to soak up the demand, inflation would not have been an issue.

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space_troubadour t1_itjdyib wrote

Problem is companies that aren’t high tech will be very slow to adopt this technology.

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sumane12 t1_itkarwc wrote

That's how capitalism works, if you have a competitive advantage over the competition, you will grow much faster than them.

The cool thing is that big tech is developing these tools and they become available to smaller companies and individuals for a fraction of the cost to develop in a short period of time, allowing anyone to become competitive.

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IndependenceRound453 t1_itizp3b wrote

>a lot more disruptive technology

in just 2 years?

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sumane12 t1_itkaa35 wrote

Yes very much so. There's already technology that has been created that will be massively disruptive, its just not available yet.

There's definitely a perspective that the productivity created by these technologies will create more jobs in the long term. we tend to be a species that utilizes all resources, so I'm betting on a lot more personalized services type jobs that require a human, until total post scarcity, Im just not sure there won't be some pain in the short term.

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