Submitted by z0rm t3_yvugyn in singularity
Kinexity t1_iwh66ng wrote
Let's break it down without wishful thinking:
>Things that should happen in the 2020s for continued hope for rapid technological development:
>
>First self-driving car (level 4)
Maybe but I have my doubts if current approaches to ML are sufficient.
>"Flying cars" available in some large cities
Flying cars are a cluster of American indvidualism and misguided vision of the future from the 50s. Normal cars are already problematic.
>AI that you can talk to.
You can do that already it's just not that great.
>1.5 nm transistors (or equivalent) or better
"1.5 nm" transistors probably. Definitely not 1.5 nm transistors.
>Supercomputer with around 100 exaFLOP (more talk about zettascale)
Highly likely. Intel aims for zetaFLOPS by 2032 but they may be too optimistic.
>petaFLOP graphics card
Possible in tensor ops but not really if we talk about shading units.
>Nanobots in the body are on it's way in some research hospitals
Doubt unless you're talking about specially prepared bacteria.
>At least one 3D printed organ have been successful
Plausible.
>Further breakthrough in radical life extension (LEV less than 10 years away according to Aubrey de Grey)
Nope. Nowhere near. Life extension probably 30 years away.
>100,000+ qubits quantum computer
Plausible.
>Starship successfully reaches orbit, possible lands on the moon
Plausible.
>Things that should happen in the 2030s for continued hope of rapid technological development:
>
>The first humanoid robots are becoming available to consumers, capable of some simple household tasks
Doubt. Probably more smaller robots could happen though.
>Self-driving cars with level 4 are becoming relatively common, basically all new cars sold are largely self-driving, at least level 4
FSD lvl 4 - yes. Common - no.
>VR/AR is widespread and very realistic
Widespread - probably if it stops being prohibitively expensive and takes off. Very realistic - doubt if graphically. Definitely not in anything else (sorry guys, no SAO yet)
>Very good artificial intelligence that you can talk to, indistinguishable from real person, different AI exists with different personalities
Hard to distinguish but not indistinguishable.
>At least one dietary supplement/gene therapy etc has been proven to make people live longer or be in better health for longer
Low probability by the end of the decade.
>Zettaflop supercomputer
Plausible.
>Quantum computers are now commonplace and useful
Maybe common in enterprise and research but definitely useful.
>Nanobots are starting to be fairly common in healthcare
You watched too much scifi with nanobots.
>3D-printed organs are becoming commonplace in healthcare
Plausible.
>Starship lands on the moon and Mars.
Plausible.
>Things that should happen in the 2040s for continued hope of rapid technological development:
>
>Robots are common everywhere. There are very capable household robots and there are humanoid robots that look very human.
Give it 10-20 more years.
>Several treatments are on the market to reverse aging.
Doubt.
>First country to reach longevity escape velocity might happen towards the end of the decade.
Impossible. We'll probably need AGI to help us do the research for that and don't expect it to do that overnight (AGI 2040-2060 but rather sooner by my guestimate)
>A majority of people in the most developed countries will now expect to live long past 100.
Same as above - hard doubt.
>Self-driving cars make up the majority of cars on the road and a lot of them have reached level 5.
Doubt.
>Permanent moonbase now exists and a base on Mars is underway.
Plausible.
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If I say "Doubt" it mostly means that I don't think technology will progress that fast.
botfiddler t1_iwhrkth wrote
You probably won't know when we reached LEV. No one claims that there will be one or some treatments and then we'll know that we'll live forever. It currently looks quite good to me. That there isn't more research and hasn't been during the last few decades is also one of the biggest scandals of our time.
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