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rixtil41 t1_ix0a4uc wrote

2023

1.No AGI but some more big improvements in AI

  1. 50/50 chance that apples mix reailty headseat will be good enough to replace a smartphone. I'm not an apple fan but if some of the rumours are ture it can. 80 % confident that visuals and sound can. But the battery life will be the make it or beak it moment. If the battery life is good enough than I am confident we will see a quick increase in sales and a lot more people using it. Or companies will soon offer something close or something similar for a cheaper price.

3.No self driving but automated level 4 or robot taxi's will be more common.

  1. No quantum computer that's good enough to replace your average smartphone, laptop ect.
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AsheyDS t1_ix163qc wrote

>4. No quantum computer that's good enough to replace your average smartphone, laptop ect.

Why would that even be a thing? That's not what quantum computers are meant for...

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rixtil41 t1_ix1x96j wrote

Half of the comments I read want a quantum computer to replace there laptops or run games because it can solve problems that would take longer than a traditional computer.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix26rva wrote

Well.. quantum chips aren't making huge gains to consider game changing yet, but to be fair we don't know what any tech can really do until we've created it and started playing with it.

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Jaydi t1_ix15zv7 wrote

I really REALLY want number 1 to be true. I don't need it to replace a smartphone, but I'm hoping for a true generational leap in visuals from the Apple headset. It excites me.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix27mmj wrote

I think VR remains a gimmick and people are immersed enough just starting into a computer/TV screen.

A more useful advance would just be better interfaces, the TV/monitor part does pretty good and pocket computers will remain more useful than headset computers because you don't have to wear them on your face to use them.

VR has the problem is making it too hard to share what you're going with a group, so it will continue to have adopting problems. Plus it's competing against cheap 4k screens that do a pretty darn good job already.

Like I'd rather have a three monitor setup where the game can pan across monitors than VR because I can set at a desktop with monitors far more comfortably for far longer than I can wear a display on my face.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix1qcxm wrote

Level 4 self-driving is pretty damn close to full self-driving. I think the main difference is that in Level 5 you cannot take over, whereas a smart Level 4 gives you the option but you rarely have to utilize it.

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summon18 t1_ix2uimq wrote

No. L4 is geo-fenced L5. That means L5 works everywhere vs L4 limited to a certain area.

Waymo, cruise are L4. No one has achieved L5.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix2uq6h wrote

Yes, but one important thing is, well, just how big is a "geo-fenced" area? One singular town? Half the country? I have never been able to find information on just how many areas are geo-fenced.

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summon18 t1_ix36m5b wrote

Usually it is part of or an entire city, potentially with some highways.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix5rizz wrote

I hope this is just for the current, early day robo-taxi tests. If I bought an L4 self-driving car one day and it was only self-driving in one town and was a normal car everywhere else, that would be kind of... completely and totally fucking useless?

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summon18 t1_ix88rxc wrote

Then wait for L5, potentially much much longer

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix8ny9h wrote

lul I know that a consumer self-driving car wouldn't be what I just described, you're shitting me if you say that it would be

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rixtil41 t1_ix3fxl6 wrote

2024

  1. Still no AGI but big improvements again

  2. MIX reailty headsets is seeing a shift over smartphones.

  3. Same prediction but a lot more robot cars or level 4

  4. Same with Quantum computer

2025

  1. Still no AGI but big improvements again but close to AGI

2.MIx reailty headsets are starting to rival smartphones in terms of popularity. A lot more people compared to 2022 are wanting the next or a mix headset instead of a smartphone.

  1. Same as 2024

  2. Same as 2024

2026

  1. AGI for the first time happens.

  2. Smartphones are no longer the number one device for the first time. More people want a mix headset over a smartphone .

  3. 50/50 of self driving level 5

  4. Same no quantum computer replacement

2027

  1. AGI is becoming a service or open source so 50/50

  2. Even as mixed headsets are now going to predictably replace smartphones when it comes to uses, smartphones are not going down without a fight in this transition. The simplicity of a smartphone is what is slowing down the headsets.

  3. Self driving level 5 80% confident

  4. Same as before

2028

  1. If AGI comes true rather it be a service or open source in 2027 than in 2028 I predict it will soon be implemented in other areas in the robotics and all other industries to the point where a replacement to the current economy is taken a lot more seriously.

  2. Companies are announcing or implying that they will soon discontinue there smartphones. Majority of people are now using headsets.

  3. More level 5

  4. Same

2029

  1. New economy is taking place
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