Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

SoulGuardian55 t1_iyede3z wrote

Reply to comment by z0rm in We're gonna have to wait decades for the singularity by z0rm

How can you know about it for sure?

5

Cult_of_Chad t1_iyehfai wrote

Black swans are funny; I love how things suddenly go from "'it'll never happen" to "it was inevitable". And somehow people never anticipate the next one.

We could cure aging next year and everyone will be saying it took too long and Ponce de Leon was working on it 500 years ago.

7

SoulGuardian55 t1_iyej93h wrote

If we returned for a while to the first days of this year, and told people (for example) about advancements of imaginative AI, not all took that seriously.

5

z0rm OP t1_iyf3xe1 wrote

Yeah but that's a very small part of the science world. I'd say it's the one that is moving the fastest right now but making predictions about such specific things is hard.

2

z0rm OP t1_iyf2ta6 wrote

No we can't cure aging next year, that will 100% not happen. That's not how science and technology works. There is not a single case of something being discovered one year and then have completly changed the world the same year. When we reach the singularity that will happen though.

0

iNstein t1_iyfa68n wrote

I am old enough to remember the announcement that scientists are going to decode the entire human genome and it will take at least 45 years. The next year it was completely decoded.

4

z0rm OP t1_iyf2k24 wrote

Because over the last 100 years every single year has only seen small improvements. But they have gotten slighly larger because technology is developing exponentially. The singularity is when these small yearly improvements have gotten so big 1 years difference would be like going from 1900-2000.

1