Submitted by Friedrich_Cainer t3_zklrdx in singularity
Assuming they release an API and allow companies to build new products on top. What roles are going to get replaced first and how many jobs do they represent?
Also interested to hear from skeptics who think there will be no major impacts.
That just speeds up the process, I’m just trying to figure out if this is going to be a slow burn or massive job market disruption.
It's going to be hard to tell. All current AI is still pretty "stupid" in that it can't really take a task from start to finish.
My personal prediction is that helpdesks/software support will be one of the biggest areas hit. If a commercial model can be tuned towards a specific business/product it would be a lot cheaper than staff/not require an office/always available/etc. Anything requiring interaction with the physical world will be a long way off imo. Marketing departments (especially dealing with online) will be heavily hit as well.
I also think dealing services will spring up to handle dealing with legal/bureacratic services using AI.
Currently AI has shown no ability at all to discern where it has made a true novel discovery vs spewing nonsense but I expect as a tool it would help a lot of scientists/engineers/creatives be more productive.
Good job ideas. We were thinking small because it was too expensive or hard, now we can finally fix some things including customer support.
Definitely. What we have seen so far is really interesting because as you say it definitely is the death knell for certain jobs but because it is also massively expanding what we can do with computers (and who can do it) it seems like many employment opportunities will spring up as well.
What do you think about digital marketing agencies?How long will it take to be eaten by ai?
It is hard to say. What we have seen of AI so far indicates to me that it can't fully replace people (outside certain roles that are overly focused on one task) but it will lead to a big increase in productivity for individuals.
The practical impact of that would seem to me to be that competition will be more fierce between marketing agencies and employees within them. But businesses will still need marketing and from what I can see of AI currently it is not well-suited to replace all the roles a skilled digital marketer will provide for a business:
The general way I am thinking of AI atm (at least what we have seen) is that it is exceptionally good at certain very specific tasks but struggles to change context. So it can be amazing at certain games/writing things/folding proteins/creating images, but can't piece any of these individual tasks into something that creates full value. Even some of the things it seems best at like generating images, the images still likely need a minor touch-up by a real artist depending on what it is being used for (although this may change especially as if you are after something like a book cover an AI can create something an order of magnitude more cheaply than an artist).
For me, the real question is what exactly is GPT-4 going to be able to do. Rumours say it has 500x more parameters than GPT-3. If we assume this is true (which I have no hard verification on and it could easily be false) what would it mean exactly? Is 500x more parameters equal to 500x as powerful? Or does it mean something else?
Apparently GPT-4 should be with us by the end of February so my plan is basically to keep going exactly as I was in terms of work etc until then and then reassess.
Wonderful answer.Thank you very much!
No, 500x parameters doesn't mean 500x more powerful at the very least because GPT3 was trained using incorrect scaling laws. They figured out since then that number of parameters wasn't the bottleneck. I forget if the bottleneck was data, or compute, but don't expect way higher parameter counts in GPT-4 if higher at all. I'm not an expert.
>For me, the real question is what exactly is GPT-4 going to be able to do.
Yep, this is the burning question. Since it will have the most SOTA scaling methods/tuning, if it's a much larger scale model than GPT3, we will may be able to extrapolate a lot better on where we're headed with subsequent models in the future. We currently don't really have any baseline to compare outside of GPT2 to 3 which isn't really that useful to compare anymore.
Slow burn, not because it isn't capable enough to automate away a large swath of jobs. But because society is slow at adoption.
The biggest problem the economy faces right now is that there are too many "bullshit jobs" and that companies aren't cutting out jobs but irrationally retain them.
The story about jobs being rapidly automated away is largely a myth.
Individual people are quick at adoption though so take it to gain an advantage in your business or work. I already use it for posts and copywriting, its awesome!
probably the new one will have a similar api though
At the pace technology is advancing, the moment ChatGPT came out, it was already obsolete. It will be the same for GPT4.
Good point. If it will continue exponentionally then gpt4 will be usefull for an even shorter period. Maybe not gpt5, but an ai from another company or organisation.
One particular work that I find interesting is Ramin Hasani Liquid Neural networks. Search for his work on GitHub. He also give a TED on December 4th, 2022.
Has deepmind ever released anything publicly?
Not if it has 100T parameters. It will cost 1000x as much as GPT-3.
IMHO, the thing is going to be about customizing the model to particular domains, giving it an education so to speak.
Then things will plateau. Many times, exponential progressions follow stacked logistic/sigmoidal models. exponential for a while, then it levels out, then exponential for a while again, zoom out it's all exponential but it won't be, FOOM based on this. It's a really complicated and important neural net that costs a lot to train.
Why hasn't AI already taken over radiology?
In dentistry we are just now seeing programs that will analyze all of our radiographs for us using AI.
I’ve seen demos at events but haven’t bought in yet. Eventually it will be the standard of care, I imagine.
Radiologists are a rather powerful cabal within healthcare. I used to work for a company that sold equipment to radiologists. By all accounts, they're assholes.
My degree is actually in computational medicine, treatment planning algorithms for radiosurgery. The field moves slow. Already, automation segmentation and registration for tumor detection is doing things we only dreamed of 20 years ago. I've seen studies where deep learning models outperform humans already. There will always be human oversight and it will be another powerful tool like beams eye view dosimetric models. Depending on the system, treatment plans can include NP hard/complete problems, been a while but I think sphere packing and gamma knife comes to mind.
It has to do with regulation, not ability. Medical field requires a lot of red tape before new technology is allowed. This is actually a good thing because it can be a matter of life or death for a lot of people.
It takes between 20-30 years from technical viability to actual implementation in the medical field. I'd expect the first very serious systems to enter the field in about 10 years time.
I think there’s going to be a massive recognition of the simple fact that 90% of human value in jobs is simply showing up in person over the next ten years. And GPT will only make that more evident.
It will be able to handle things like routine email and software stuff.
But “pick up a box and move it 100 feet” is not something it’ll be able to do because the raw materials/expenses to put a body onto GPT’s brain will be prohibitively expensive en masse.
Tesla bot enters the room - hold my beer 🍺
Picking up boxes is being automated as we speak by any number of companies.
I’m sure. But you need raw materials to build a physical robot to do that is my main point.
There’s no such hurdle with, say, automating a spreadsheet.
Next to 0. The rate of change in large companies is very slow. Using these tool will require architecture reviews that typically take over a year. POCs will ramp up heavily in 2023 with pilot starting in 2025. Other than call service will primarily be a support tool for workers for a few years with some slower hiring due to productivity gains. It will be a generation or two before it becomes wide spread then it will be embedded in the products used by corporate world at which point it will be ubiquitous almost evernight. This isn’t the one that is going to kill all the jobs because it is still just a. Language model and will need to combined with other models.
i think about 25% of global jobs will be pretty strongly affected, not necessarily completely replaced. Already I think that is the case, it's just most people haven't really caught up and started utilizing chatgpt for themselves yet. But it will be very quick no doubt.
I think you are going to see a lot of companies releasing AI software who helps you do your jobs. It will provide suggestions but AI won't be able to do the job for you. Let's say someone sends you an e-mail asking about a project. The AI will be to read the e-mail, look at your calendar and details about the project, and provide suggestions for an e-mail response.
I highly doubt this version of chatgpt (if that's what you're referring to) will ever have much of an impact on the job market.
That being said, I can see future models having noticeable impacts on the economy, with the more advanced they get the bigger the economic impact.
By 2025, my guess is that the job market of today will still look largely the same as it does today (with the big exception being that significant parts of it have would have become reliant on AI tools and many other fields would be in the process of adopting them - I think it could be a whole decade from now before AI is ubiquitous in the entire workforce), only because that date is pretty near and AI, although unquestionably impressive today, is still the subject of quite of bit of hype IMO when you not only inspect it closely and see that the AI in question still has significant shortcomings but also become more aware of how wide the breadth of tasks humans can perform (particularly at our jobs) is and how much further AI has to go in order to rival that breadth, so I think it still has a ways to go before it has the capacity to noticeably impact the workforce, let alone be adopted by workplaces. Those are my 2 cents.
Chat AI is already used extensively in customer support, all that will happen is that the AI can take care of slightly more than it could 6 months ago.
You think chatGPT is only an incremental improvement?
I actually do but it’s getting more and more visibility which makes it seem like it’s bigger than it actually is!
Isn't it?
ChatGPT is based on GPT3 which already has an API and has been out for some time now. ChatGPT isn't going to have an API because it is the end product in this case.
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For a huge proportion of the job market, remote working has proven to lead to better employee satisfaction, better productivity, reduced overhead, and overall has shown broad improvements. Yet many of these same companies insist on working in person.
As many in the thread have stated, many companies are slow to adopt change. Even if ChatGPT and GPT-4 would completely upend and improve their operations, the adoption of the tech and infrastructure to support it as well as the “office cultural” implications means to me that for the vast majority of the job market, there’s not going to be much change.
However, the jobs that are forward-thinking and progressive enough to make the leap will likely catapult to the top in terms of efficiency and profit margins and that competitive pressure will drive other companies to follow over time
Will it affect cybersecurity?
You hear surprisingly little about this. ‘Hack’ AIs could be incredible powerfull.
If you have the ability that can predict the AI breakthrough and impact accuratly, then you can use this ability to make money in ten year ago, like buy btc, and do not need to concern the wage a job can earn.
If you don't have ths ability, this mean you can not estimate the technology impact.
if we're purely talking about gpt-3 then it's not sufficient to replace a human because it is not coherent to make business decisions on it's own, it will need human supervisors.
the way i see it, these LLM AIs will keep getting better but they'll actually empower human workers, not replace them. we'll be capable of doing more thinking and less acting jobs. but yeah we might get rid of actors and only value thinkers in the upcoming job market. who knows how this will evolve with our herd mind.
It won't have much of an impact, it is way too limited compared to GTP3. GPT4 will probably have an impact a few years down the line.
In 2025 the impact will be negligible. New technology take time to be adopted by the greater society.
I don't expect significant (or even necessarily detectable from background shifts) changes in the labor force participation rate by 2025. By 2030 that's another matter - I expect to see the labor force participation rate fall at least in the 50% range by then. Also obviously it won't be ChatGPT having this effect (at least unless they train something under the same name or the like).
I don't think many jobs get replaced with this yet (maybe call centers and essay writers for college students though lol), that day will come but chatbots are still too error prone, too expensive, and can't work with all file formats yet (for instance chatgpt can't directly work with Excel although you can finagle it to do so in ass backwards way). I think this just makes people in fields that are first adopters more productive.
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> how many jobs
Given that 1mil users kneeled Azure's GPU farms, I don't think they can scale it up to have a significant impact on the job market.
These AI chatbots won’t know specific details about certain jobs, like obscure things that are very specific to a given job which it likely wasn’t trained on. That, and the fact that it is still prone to making mistakes means that it won’t replace that many jobs.
It is difficult to predict with certainty the impact of chatGPT on the job market by 2025. However, it is likely that chatGPT, or any other large language model, could have a significant impact on certain jobs that involve the processing of large amounts of text data. For example, jobs such as transcription and data entry could potentially be automated using chatGPT or a similar technology.
If chatGPT is released as an API and companies are able to build new products using it, it is possible that some roles may be replaced or at least significantly changed. It is important to note, however, that the extent of this impact would depend on the specific tasks that chatGPT is able to perform and the accuracy with which it can perform them.
It is also worth considering the potential impact of chatGPT on the overall job market. Some experts have suggested that the use of AI and automation in certain industries could lead to the creation of new jobs in other areas, as companies and organizations look for ways to integrate and utilize these technologies. This could potentially offset any job losses that may occur as a result of chatGPT or other AI technologies.
Overall, the potential impact of chatGPT on the job market by 2025 is difficult to predict with certainty. It is likely that it could have some impact on certain roles that involve the processing of large amounts of text data, but the extent of this impact would depend on a number of factors.
little to none, something much better will most likely come along pretty soon to replace it
questionasker577 t1_j00emmy wrote
I may be wrong, but ChatGPT may be obsoleted by GPT4 or something from DeepMind in ~6 months or less.
The more capable the LLM, the more impact it will have on the job market. I suppose it all depends on the capabilities.