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ghomerl t1_j03o790 wrote

nah, unless its a fucking HUGE leap. GPT-3 wont be taking over any jobs, just making existing jobs easier

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cole_braell t1_j03p5ru wrote

GPT3 - 1.5 Billion Parameters

GPT4 - 100 Trillion Parameters (rumored)

It’s a pretty significant leap.

Edit: Rumor has been debunked, apparently. We’re probably not looking at anything near 100T for GPT4.

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Shelfrock77 t1_j03ptv4 wrote

And not to mention that’s for each gpt-4. That hive mind of gpt4 bots will make up super intelligence quite quickly.

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12342ekd t1_j03quki wrote

Yeah and since they’re computers, they will be communicating instantaneously and they will be able to share deep insights and express them better with each other than we ever could

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CarlPeligro t1_j047zfy wrote

I've been feeling weirdly giddy lately. It didn't hit me right away. I messed around with ChatGPT for a few days and thought of it (for a time) as a kind of enhanced Google. But once I began to get a feel for what it was doing and the magnitude of what it was capable of -- that's when the giddiness set in. There is a kind of liberation that comes with a total loss of control. The giddiness set in with the gradual realization that nothing I do from here on out really matters all that much. Be a good person, try to get back in touch with some old friends, try to better myself wherever I can. But otherwise ...

The big-picture stuff is in AI's hands now, for better or for ill.

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sideways t1_j04lm2t wrote

You are absolutely right - and quite early in that realization. Reminds me of this quote by Winston Churchill:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

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[deleted] t1_j04d7oi wrote

[deleted]

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CarlPeligro t1_j04ey9v wrote

I've heard of Pac-Man fever, but this man's come down with some Pac-Man dengue.

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civilrunner t1_j0449xz wrote

I suspect GPT4 will be the start of commercialization for common use of AI systems, however I suspect we will need more of an advancement in AI rather than just scale to truly get to a point where we can automate a substantial portion of the workforce.

We're already seeing what ChatGPT can do, I think its clear that we'll see some wild things by 2030. I'll be really curious how well these types of AI models can transfer to robotics and physical systems.

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Wassux t1_j04t885 wrote

So Im doing a masters in ai robotics, pretty well I'd say

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civilrunner t1_j04wjlt wrote

Well that's pretty dang handy. Looking forward to seeing it be applied more!

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triton100 t1_j04upv3 wrote

How long before we see home robots like iRobot?

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civilrunner t1_j057e8o wrote

I'd suspect a long while. There isn't that much value in home robots so you can't charge that much. They'll be in a ton of jobs prior to ever being in homes. I wouldn't expect anything till a while after manual construction jobs are automated which is seemingly a ways away though admittedly could happen sooner than expected cause AI is a wild technology.

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superluminary t1_j05oqo6 wrote

We have an aging population and not enough young people to care for the elderly. Our current solution involves people cycling from house to house doing the washing up and putting food in the microwave.

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beezlebub33 t1_j03sufl wrote

>GPT4 - 100 Trillion Parameters

I must be out of the loop. Where is that rumor from?

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__ingeniare__ t1_j03tzp3 wrote

It's just a rumour and I think Sam Altman basically denied that this was the case. Another, perhaps more plausible, rumour is that GPT-4 will have a very different architecture where the parameter count between it an GPT-3 doesn't say much because it's no longer just about bruteforce scaling.

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beezlebub33 t1_j04k5c9 wrote

That would, IMHO, be a big win. Even if the scaling hypothesis is correct, why would you want to solve the problem that way, when there are probably far better ways to solve it.

Sure, we could fly an interstellar spacecraft to another solar system, but it would be a bad idea to do it, because in the time that it would take to get there, some other ways of getting there would be invented. IF you left for the stars now, people would be waiting for you when you got there.

In the same way, simply scaling compute and data may get you to a certain amount of intelligence. But the costs and effort would be huge. It would probably be better to spend that time and effort (and money) on making the underlying ideas better. And even if it turns out that, yes, we have to scale, waiting until computational costs come down further is probably a good idea.

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cole_braell t1_j03tlv3 wrote

Here, but now I’m reading elsewhere that they may have pulled that number out if their ass.

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naossoan t1_j048mei wrote

GPT4 is not 100T parameters. Stop spreading that BS. The GPT team already stated on record that GPT4 is not significantly larger than GPT3 in parameter size.

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HolyNucleoli t1_j041jzx wrote

>100 trillion parameters

Definitely not happening until a few years from now

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Ribak145 t1_j048oav wrote

lets see about the # of parameters ...

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Brandon0135 t1_j04viun wrote

Making jobs easier is taking over jobs. If a job is made 50% easier, half of the team is laid off.

Unless we change the economic order, AI will just be a corporate profit maximizer.

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nomoreprocrastin8ing t1_j04wzo7 wrote

AI will make smaller scale operations far more efficient too though, so larger organisations won’t hold the same inertia

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