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Despite what my flair says I wouldn't be surprised if it takes 50 years

Aubrey De Grey thinks there is a 50% probability that we can control aging in 15 years

If you are 30 or younger, there may be a chance.

Life expectancy is low in America because most people can't afford healthcare. If you can afford healthcare and you're under 30 lev seems probable good odds. Maybe even 50 year olds but it always just comes down to health care cost

You can’t use a whole country’s life expectancy to project your own. 70% of the US is overweight or obese. Decent amount smoke, do drugs, dont take vaccines, don’t take care of their health at all.

Family history of longevity (genetics) also matters a lot.

It just means the growth curve is a little steeper than he predicted it would be 26 years ago, wouldn't really think too hard about life expectancy going down when 30% of the US pop thinks vaccines have sinful dancing ice phantoms inside it. This is not a reflection of science it's a reflection of an almost 3 year health crisis

>life expectancy in the US has declined by 7 months over the last few years and that our current life expectancy of 77 hasn't changed since 1997

Covid had a big impact on the last couple years, and the overall trend doesn't go up because for example obesity rates went up a lot since 1997. So while some people lived longer thanks to better researched treatments for cancer or other health issues, others lived less due to obesity so it cancelled out. Without that factor it would be around 83, which is where some other healthier countries are at right now. One good example is Japan, which seems to be going on a steady slow increase over time, from 80 years in 1997 to 85 now.

The opioid epidemic has also had a huge impact on these numbers.

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Massachuessets is doing way better than Mississippi in terms of life expectancy.

Some predictions for LEV;

• Ray Kurzweil: LEV in 2028

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ryxuehnp8k#t=18m00s

• José Luis Cordeiro (Futurist): LEV in 2030

https://longevity.technology/news/longevity-escape-velocity-within-10-years/

• Dr. Michael Roizen (Prof at Cleveland Clinic): LEV in the early 2030s

https://www1.cbn.com/aging-future-never-looked-better

• Dr. Aubrey de Grey: LEV in 2036

https://longevity.technology/news/longevity-escape-velocity-by-2035-and-it-will-be-free/

• Prof. Dr. George Church (Harvard-Professor): LEV in 2037

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbpzdlib2us#t=21m21s

• David Wood (Futurist): LEV before 2040

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZbyuBn4Ywg#t=17m25s

Personally, I think the LEV will be reached later in 2050, but we will definitely make significant progress up to that point.

Even if we're not in the LEV, we'll have made significant progress in our understanding of aging and be able to slow it down a bit, I'd bet anyone under 65 has a good chance of doing that.

The 'speed' of LEV is how quickly life expectancy increases. What drives that increase in lifespan, however, is not a continuous momentum, but discrete advances that can have large and relatively sudden effects. What this means is that looking at the average rate of increase in your life expectancy will never be an accurate representation of whether you'll "make it" because it's always possible that we hit a roadblock and no further improvements occur. for a while, or a massive new discovery is right around the corner.

What this means is that we won't really know if we've made it until we're almost into orbit (so to speak). LEV is something that will be hard to really determine at this point. Perhaps, in hindsight, we'll say we reached LEV in 2035 when [X] became available, but at that point we spent the next decade pinning for the next breakthrough.

Ten years ago, Aubrey would not have been optimistic about the progress of rejuvenation. By 2006, Shinya Yamanaka had figured out how to turn normal cells into more versatile and useful stem cells (induced pluripotent stem cells, or IPSs), and CRISPR was beginning to mature as a gene-editing technology. But these were tools, and more theoretical than practical.

For quite some time, we have been able to increase the lifespan of laboratory mice by imposing caloric restrictions or doing things that mimic the effects of caloric restriction. But in the last decade we have also learned how to use stem cell therapies and how to maintain telomeres to extend the lifespan of mice. (Telomeres are structures that keep DNA strands from unraveling when cells divide, like the plastic caps on the ends of shoelaces.) We can also implement senolytics, which are molecules that kill toxic cells within our bodies.

Some of these techniques are now transferring laboratory mice to humans in clinics. One of the leading senolytics companies published this year from a successful phase two clinical trial. There are also clinical trials of stem cell therapies, notably the use of induced pluripotent stem cells in Japan to combat Parkinson's disease, with a couple more trials starting in the US.

Robust Mouse Rejuvenation

We do not yet know how complete our portfolio of therapies needs to be to reach LEV. We just have to keep adding new components until we get there. mice cannot get worse from LEV because their lifespan is too short, so Aubrey has developed a different concept for them: robust mouse rejuvenation (RMR), which is when a middle-aged mouse, which has left one year of life, has his life expectancy doubled. This is the LEV Foundation's flagship research program, and for this purpose, Aubrey recently purchased 1,000 mice.

For quite some time, we have been able to increase the lifespan of laboratory mice by imposing caloric restrictions or doing things that mimic the effects of caloric restriction. But in the last decade we have also learned how to use stem cell therapies and how to maintain telomeres to extend the lifespan of mice. (Telomeres are structures that keep DNA strands from unraveling when cells divide, like the plastic caps on the ends of shoelaces.) We can also implement senolytics, which are molecules that kill toxic cells within our bodies.

Some of these techniques are now being passed from laboratory mice to humans in clinics. One of the leading senolytic companies reported a successful phase two clinical trial this year. There are also clinical trials of stem cell therapies, notably the use of induced pluripotent stem cells in Japan to combat Parkinson's disease, with a couple more trials due to start in the US.

Robust Mouse Rejuvenation The Foundations that Aubrey has established are necessary because private business cannot afford to take a broad enough perspective. He established the new one because he felt that the SENS Board had grown too timid to make the rapid progress that he believes is now possible. Readers of this article may be aware of this controversy, and while I don't intend to go into the details here, many former SENS donors believe Aubrey was treated unfairly, and we fully support his new venture.

I'm fine because;

⚫ Finally billionaires who are older than me don't want to get old

⚫ Nobody likes to get old

⚫ Being young is fashionable

And if I die, I won't care, because you know, I'm dead.

So yes, I am an optimist!

As long as you don't have to work long hours every day, living longer sounds good

But since the only option is to work hard and invest just to have enough money to live 10 or 15 years in fragility, it takes the thrill out of living forever.

They should read Peter Hamilton's Commonwealth books. They have rejuvenation technology and he imagines some interesting social changes based on people living forever. But basically, the poor work for 40 years so they can rejuvenate and then do it again. Forever. Better for the rich, of course.

Three stages of life;

You have time and strength, but no money. You have money and strength, but no time. You have money and time, but you don't have the strength.

>rt his new ventu

Oh, it's well documented WHY we're dying younger. If I live to 77 I'd be amazed. When my dad died at 64, I had just turned 22 and had every reason to believe I'd live longer than average person. The world has beaten me down quite a bit since then (18 yrs ago).

It's mostly avoidable issues. For me and our society as a whole, but as shit falls apart more, we age faster, and have less to look forward to.

I was on track to retire very comfy as a multimillionaire by 60. Now i have no doubt I'll work until death (best case scenario) so i can leave a few pennies for my daughter, or, I'll die penniless as a ward of the state in one those hellish, smelly, pits we throw our old and dying into. We have too many old people and not enough young people and that's only going to worsen.

Lack of resources kills you early not just from a lack of healthcare. It means more stress, less opportunity to engage in healthy activities, less likely to eat properly, less likely to sleep properly. More likely to have drug addiction.

It's one of the many ways Boomers had the end of continuous improvement (in US where each gen had it better than previous). We millennials were raised in that comfy environment, making us poorly prepared for the hard times that set us up for.

Let me frame it slightly different.

After the worst global pandemic in recent history, life expectancy only dropped by 7 months... Life expectancy is calculated based on people who are dieing TODAY. So assuming no further improvements to medical care until you die, that's what your life expectancy is.

We may have already. We would only know after the fact.

2100 the earliest

LEV for the hyper rich, most likely 2100s. We need injectable nanotech for it. Our materials science still has a long, long way to go before being able to manufacture nanotech en masse.

More than likely it seems

Singularity predictions are based on humanity’s best efforts; the USA isn’t even in the top 20 nations for LEV and healthcare in general, so it’s not going to be that relevant to the success rate of the predictions…

Fxf l

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In any case, try Nectome, if you don't think you will reach it.

You may not like it but it's true - 2100 is your best date - to wish any earlier shows you know nothing about the realities of biotech

Not in the lifetimes of anyone reading this. Replies here are huffing copium from fringe doctors

Then it will never be possible don’t you think. My opinion is that we aren’t far away from the technological limit. If we still have no cure for aging and no agi in 50 years it will never be possible.