Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Phoenix5869 t1_j2li3ba wrote

I love the enthusiasm and progress is good, but please try to separate the hype from reality. LEV is not going to happen in the next 20 years like a lot of people here claim. We are decades and decades away from even having treatments for aging, let alone curing it or reaching LEV.

−7

overlordpotatoe t1_j2lp4w1 wrote

I think people here are certainly overly optimistic, but there's so much compounding change that nobody really has any idea where we'll be at in twenty years time. We have no idea how a treatment for aging will be discovered or what technology it will require, so how can we even begin to guess how long it will take? Could be five years. A hundred. Never. Nobody knows.

15

r0cket-b0i t1_j2m6uj5 wrote

>t please try to separate the hype from reality. LEV is not going to happen in the next 20 years like a lot of people here claim. We are decades and decades away from even having treatments for aging, let alone curing it or reaching LEV.

absolutely my point, yes compounding change and industry convergence. We do have both targeted efforts (attempts to cure aging) and potentially synergetic non targeted efforts (from development of AI to better scanning, diagnostics, better materials, lasers, smaller particles, etc etc). LEV in 20 years may or may not happen and if we are not goign to see signs in the next 5 years we can self organize to try pushing the progress but I am more optimistic than before.

4

Mokebe890 t1_j2mg5zw wrote

I mean youre bold saying that AGI will come in 2040s. This is ridicolously long time from today.

6

AsuhoChinami t1_j2no0e6 wrote

Yeah, 2040s is just... absurd. Absolutely absurd. There is no way to justify that opinion unless the last time you paid attention was 2017 or something.

1

Vehks t1_j2mgb2y wrote

>We are decades and decades away...

Yes this sub is very much overly optimistic thus I am wary of many of the claims made here, but I'm also wary of people who throw up baseless nonsense like this as well.

Considering that most people, this includes experts, cannot come even close to making accurate future predictions past 5 years or so I immediately tune out when people drop the "maybe in a 100 years" or the "decades and decades" spiel.

It's been said that humans can only make reasonable/feasible predictions in a time span of roughly 3 years, with 5 years being generous.

Anything past that is just wild ass guessing and the reason for that is we have no idea what break throughs can suddenly pop up or what technologies come to fruition that prior predictions didn't account for because we had no way of knowing/expected.

There are just too many unknowns past the 3-5 year mark is what my point is, so speaking so matter-of-factly about things that far out is an absurdity.

5

AsuhoChinami t1_j2nnp7w wrote

Absolutely. That's self-proclaimed realists and skeptics for you, though - they're nothing if not utterly hard-headed and completely confident in everything they ever say. In their minds, anything skeptical is automatically intelligent. I could say that 40 TB hard drives won't exist until 2800 and they would go "OMG!!!!! So true!!!!! 10/10 post take my upvote"

2

ReignOfKaos t1_j2n6cgt wrote

How would a world look like where we have AGI but it still takes another 10-20 years to reach LEV?

1