Submitted by DukkyDrake t3_105qmfy in singularity
just-a-dreamer- t1_j3cay8n wrote
Reply to comment by DukkyDrake in A more realistic vision of the AI & Programmer's jobs story by DukkyDrake
It is fantastic...or terrible. Depending where you are.
I am curious what people will expect of government in the future. And how they relate to each other in terms of status and wealth.
If the predictions are true, working hours will decrease dramaticly.
DukkyDrake OP t1_j3cdyvt wrote
It's almost always white-knuckle terror for the individual.
As someone who does old school automation, it's the bespoke engineering costs why we don't have a more technological society. The return on investment simply isn't there to justify crafting solutions for the vast majority of economically valuable tasks. Renting the productive time of poorly educated humans is still the gold standard.
These tools will allow tapping a much larger pool of lower skilled programmers as well. That lower cost basis will bring into reach the next larger level of low hanging fruit to partially automate.
just-a-dreamer- t1_j3cf8g8 wrote
How will programers react then? If you spend years in college, take out student loans, spend a career in developing specialized skillsets,....all for either being replaced or remaining at a low pay grade.
DukkyDrake OP t1_j3cz0vt wrote
How have people reacted to similar threats to their profession since time immemorial. How are artists currently reacting to their impending existential commercial threat. They will react badly and it's understandable, but it ultimately doesn't matter on the macro scale. Expecting the world to slow down or make a special exception for you isn't reasonable, they will all do what others have done in the past; they will all accept it in the end because there is no recourse. Society will be better off in the end, well, assuming the cultural ethics of your local society has a fair amount of humanism at its core. If it doesn't, a lot of people could be in for some difficult times.
just-a-dreamer- t1_j3d2ekh wrote
I predict some professions will rush to seek government intervention to stop AI automation in their field. Lawyers and medical professionals especially. They will demand more board licensing procedures to be allowed to engage in their respective professions.
Programers could also argue the government must step in and put regulations in place to protect their status. Creating mandatory job possitions like, let's say AI controller.
An age of big government might be on the horizon where everybody is demanding protection and job security.
DukkyDrake OP t1_j3d51ej wrote
>I predict some professions will rush to seek government intervention to stop AI automation...
I expect they will, and some will achieve success even if it's on the local and not national level. It won't matter. It's a big world, fear of losing out to your economic rivals will fuel the march progress.
just-a-dreamer- t1_j3d63tn wrote
Do you believe semi socialist economies like China will fare better with AI automation?
They have ways to direct the labor market western powers are not used to. They are also experienced in creating government jobs from scratch, useful or not.
Telling a highly paid respected white collar professional he is not needed anymore is one thing, figuring out what to do with such displaced person is a problem.
DukkyDrake OP t1_j3dqgqx wrote
I see very few signs of economic socialism in China, I think it's mostly lip service at this point. The only thing they have going is they don't have the visceral distaste for the idea, at least at the political level.
For a supposedly socialist country, the avg citizen over there doesn't appear to value the idea of the public commons at all. If it's not their property, they just don't care; perhaps that's a symptom of socialism itself. It manifests as extreme self-centeredness/selfishness, sometimes I think they have more in common with the outlook of the most militant US conservative.
The US doesn't really do industrial policy. "Not picking winners and losers" Existing businesses don't want to be displaced, and the new winners don't always have the same world view as the traditional winners. Politics always goes first.
If handled badly, the coming transitions could swell the ranks of the homeless until it threatens to destabilize a country. Authoritarian countries can remain stable with a high degree (>50%) of crushing poverty, not sure if an indirect democracy would fall apart before reaching such a state.
Do nothing politically and Johannesburg could be the future. >The Economics of Automation: What Does Our Machine Future Look Like?
just-a-dreamer- t1_j3dvnqw wrote
Honestly, I wouldn't bother about the lower classes for they will always get crushed economicly, at least that's what history shows. A sad reality of life, I wish it were different.
The problem is not the homeless in my opinion, but college graduates from middle class background. What will happen when 50% of college graduates don't find a job within 5 years? How will all these young ambitious 20 something react?
China has put down mass demonstrations of students in 1989 with military force. It was not the lower classes that caused trouble, it was students and college graduates.
Interesting times ahead, I think governments will expand to absorb some of the surplus labor to keep enough people loyal and calm.
DukkyDrake OP t1_j3e8p5k wrote
There are no special people, future homeless are just college grads without a job after their parents are no longer able to make their own house payments. No different than the reasons why there are currently doctors and PhDs driving taxis in Cuba. Degrees are only valuable if someone with capital values such qualifications.
>governments will expand to absorb some of the surplus labor to keep enough people loyal and calm
Why spend money on "make work" when gov can mitigate their future college grad uprising by ensuring ample supply of cheap drugs and video games.
Best to be stable before things goes south. This is all just idle speculation; everything could easily turn out just fine. No real way to know where things are headed. I usually bet on and prepare for the default outcome, what will happen if there are no special actions taken to ameliorate foreseen difficulties. That's usually the cheapest option at any given moment for gov, do nothing and hope the problem goes away.
just-a-dreamer- t1_j3ef3uq wrote
Well, I have read demographic data that is at cross purpose with the fears about AI automation.
Apparantly China has a gigantic problem with aging population, as do many other countries in southeast asia.
The US and europe also face problems. I don't know, maybe AI automation will come just in time to save the day as more and more people are about to retire.
Or maybe all countries are in trouble. Depends how deep and fast the transformation happens and how governments will react.
DukkyDrake OP t1_j3fi7n6 wrote
We are approaching the age where the problem will be "what to do with legions of unwanted workers that serve no useful function". The problem of "not enough young workers and consumers" is only a problem if the timing is wrong. If AI isn't reliable enough to function in the real world in the next 20-30 years, that probably means it's a much harder nut to crack than assumed and it's not going to be solved before that demographic prob becomes a massive drag on global GDP.
onyxengine t1_j3cw0rt wrote
Haven’t seen this expressed better by anyone else
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