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terminal_laziness t1_j63qyo2 wrote

If Microsoft is convinced that OpenAI is well on their way to AGI I wonder why they’d make a deal that caps their profit to “only” $150b. That’s only twice the profit they made last year…and at $13b invested that’s a high risk for a maximum 10x’er. Usually venture investing is looking for 100x + returns.

I’m guessing they intend to further develop the relationship and renegotiate terms in the event that OpenAI really does create AGI

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LesleyFair OP t1_j63s2h2 wrote

They might. Imho, they do not think OpenAI is close to AGI. However, their tools will become more powerful in the future.

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genshiryoku t1_j64ence wrote

There's no reason to assume AGI translates to profitability. If AGI is commodified then essentially all value will be captured by the hardware guys, not the AGI developers.

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terminal_laziness t1_j6528wg wrote

You’re right it’s definitely an assumption but if you’re the first to reach AGI, I could see there being insane benefits until things are commoditized.

For instance, imagine having an financial/investment analyst that’s 100-1000x more capable than the average human. Connecting patterns in the data that we just aren’t capable of seeing. My brother-in-law works as a data analyst for a PE fund that also does some public investing, and gathering and synthesizing that data is what informs their investment decisions for quarterly earnings reports. I imagine that a competent AGI could have a significant leg up in the accuracy of these long/short calls and that’s just one small example I just thought of

Edit: I realize that may not translate directly to what Microsoft is doing, but if their software suite is enhanced by AGI before any other company’s has, then at the very least they will have vastly superior products which would translate to profitability

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ScionoftheToad t1_j64ak2r wrote

Why do you think AGI would be so profitable?

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TwitchTvOmo1 t1_j64d1ff wrote

Is that a serious question? AGI would be like cavemen discovering fire.

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ScionoftheToad t1_j64fanw wrote

I don't doubt that it would be an important development. But how would Microsoft exploit AGI for profit?

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TwitchTvOmo1 t1_j64qrta wrote

Same way every corporation exploits someone else's invention for profit.

Idea think tanks. Identify a problem. Then come up with an idea (leveraged by that invention, in this case AGI) that solves the problem. Package that idea into a product (software or hardware). Sell product.

Now you might ask, "But isn't AGI GENERAL intelligence? Meaning that with just 1 product that utilizes AGI to its fullest, you will never need another product ever again?"

You're not wrong. But the conspiracist in me tells me companies might try to gimp AGI intentionally so they can have multiple "different" products using the same technology, instead of 1 holy grail of all products that you only sell once. The only hope of eliminating this conspiracy is... You guessed it, competition. As long as more than 1 company gets their hands on it, the "ultimate product" of AGI is unavoidable, as one company will always try to outdo the other's product.

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SoylentRox t1_j64w50r wrote

I have a better proposal to exploit this.

Build an AGI system smart enough to do the work of a "think tank" (your example). Have it do lots of demo work and prove it's measurably better than the human competition.

Sell the service. Why would you sell the actual AGI architecture/weights or hardware? Sell the milk not the cow lol.

AI/AGIs will probably always be 'rented' except for open source ones that you can 'own' by downloading.

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TwitchTvOmo1 t1_j64wsuc wrote

There are many ways to exploit it. The question is... Are we just gonna let that happen? Or are we going to demand that AGI is democratized? The history of the world so far is unfortunately not on our side. The means of production have always belonged to the rich. AGI will be the ultimate "means of production" if you wanna call it that. Will the rich get richer or will AGI solve inequality too?

Find out on the next episode of "capitalism vs AI"

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SoylentRox t1_j64yel3 wrote

I just mean "how do I make my money back and pay back the investors".

If we want a democratized AI we vote and get the government to pay for the compute and services of all those rockstars. The compute costs (which will likely soar into the sky, later systems this decade will probably burn billions in compute just to train) mean this isn't supportable by an open source model.

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Ok-Wrangler-1075 t1_j67s63f wrote

How wouldnt they? They can become a leader in any industry with it. They can design cutting edge products and replace their workforce at the same time meaning they would be able to price the products insanly low, nobody would be able to compete.

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