You’re right it’s definitely an assumption but if you’re the first to reach AGI, I could see there being insane benefits until things are commoditized.

For instance, imagine having an financial/investment analyst that’s 100-1000x more capable than the average human. Connecting patterns in the data that we just aren’t capable of seeing. My brother-in-law works as a data analyst for a PE fund that also does some public investing, and gathering and synthesizing that data is what informs their investment decisions for quarterly earnings reports. I imagine that a competent AGI could have a significant leg up in the accuracy of these long/short calls and that’s just one small example I just thought of

Edit: I realize that may not translate directly to what Microsoft is doing, but if their software suite is enhanced by AGI before any other company’s has, then at the very least they will have vastly superior products which would translate to profitability

If Microsoft is convinced that OpenAI is well on their way to AGI I wonder why they’d make a deal that caps their profit to “only” $150b. That’s only twice the profit they made last year…and at $13b invested that’s a high risk for a maximum 10x’er. Usually venture investing is looking for 100x + returns.

I’m guessing they intend to further develop the relationship and renegotiate terms in the event that OpenAI really does create AGI

Seems like a no-brainer company to short