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GeneralZain t1_j3ovt9w wrote

I'm just looking at pace of change. we suck at exponentials, so any prediction that FEELS realistic timeline wise will be too slow.

its also really important to remember that once you start feeling and seeing the exponential change, it means we are close to the extremely quick part.

once the lake is halfway full, it is only one doubling away from being full :)

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3p4smi wrote

What’s your prediction for 2025-26? Any autonomous robots by then?

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GeneralZain t1_j3psiwo wrote

tbh it depends on what happens this year. if we get AGI, we get everything else pretty soon after...

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3r4dra wrote

I remember that guy Set/ai talking about how 2023 was going to be the year that AI really takes off and it looks like he was right, although his reasoning was cryptic and hard to interpret.

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