Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

mnamilt t1_j3qd210 wrote

The problem is that nobody reads the definition of Metaculus for what they hold as to be 'Weakly General AI':

It requires a unified system to accomplish 4 tasks. But two of those tasks were already being able to be completed by AI (the Winogrande challenge and playing Montezuma's revenge), one of those tasks might be hard to accomplish due to the requirement (good chance that an AI system has more than 10 sat papers in it, good luck getting that out), and one of the tasks is not defunct.

Aka, I'd rate the ability of a system to meet those 4 requirements probably way earlier than 2027, but thats because the requirements dont seem to hold up great to what the community perceives to be weak AGI. Actual weak AGI id rate way later than the Metaculus question.

4

Embarrassed-Bison767 t1_j3r2xwz wrote

If you have a single AI system that does all four we will already have something lots more powerful than what exists today

2

Redvolition t1_j3qjp9c wrote

The Metaculus definition will already cause massive waves of disruption. I would consider it indeed a "weak AGI", but this is just more or less fruitless categorization.

1

maskedpaki t1_j3tcz2a wrote

making one system do all 4 is a lot harder than making 4 systems that do one each.

1