mnamilt

mnamilt t1_j3qd210 wrote

The problem is that nobody reads the definition of Metaculus for what they hold as to be 'Weakly General AI':

It requires a unified system to accomplish 4 tasks. But two of those tasks were already being able to be completed by AI (the Winogrande challenge and playing Montezuma's revenge), one of those tasks might be hard to accomplish due to the requirement (good chance that an AI system has more than 10 sat papers in it, good luck getting that out), and one of the tasks is not defunct.

Aka, I'd rate the ability of a system to meet those 4 requirements probably way earlier than 2027, but thats because the requirements dont seem to hold up great to what the community perceives to be weak AGI. Actual weak AGI id rate way later than the Metaculus question.

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mnamilt t1_j01jv32 wrote

I dont like the hustle-get-rich culture either. Luckily, chatgpt is also great for chill at home things. I use it for cooking recipes. I have a pretty solid idea of what I want to make, often from a recipe from the internet somewhere. Then I ask chatgpt also for that recipe, and see where they differ. It has given me good inspiration to add some extra veggies or spices to dishes. Its a very simple but effective use case.

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mnamilt t1_iy8vagr wrote

This book/article gives a pretty solid idea of why robots will do the large majority of work on a space economy: https://www.wired.com/story/end-of-astronauts-robots-space-exploration/

As such, no, The Expanse is not actually a remotely realistic view of a space society. It heavily misunderstands how crazy cheap robots can get, and how crazy expensive human life support will be structurally.

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