Most certainly well before 2030. And I say this as someone who thinks AGI requires paradigm shifts. I already see signs of the sheer economic and intellectual force behind AI now digging into actions that likely lead to paradigm shifts. There is pressure and incentive to lower compute, apply the newest techniques across countless domains, innovate hardware, explore embodiment, etc.

This year we'll already get what I call pseudo-AGI. LLM-based Narrow AI that is general enough to be phenomenally useful when coupled with handy APIs and other modern techniques in AI.