Yup. That's my view as well. I'm guessing we'll get watchable vidoes maybe within 5 years. And from there it'll be a small niche where people make their own indie movies, but that's not up to hollywood quality just yet. A few years after that I imagine it might be used in hollywood for a movie or two. It'll take a long while before they switch over entirely.

Hard to say, but I'm not expecting it soon.