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random_shitter t1_j9kmmt5 wrote

Reply to comment by verifiedboomer in what's the future of space travel within the next 27 years in 2050 to 2100 by LatterCardiologist47

Ithink you sincerely underestimate how much money can be made in space. We're just cracking the tools and 1st benefits of micro-g production and biosciences. There needs to be only 1 succesful product that has to be produced in space to let asteroid mining companies have business plans viable for venture capital. As soon as there is some asteroid mining the cat's out of the bag and things will explode.

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Quwinsoft t1_j9kniey wrote

With the Baby Boomers retiring and deglobalization, venture capital is already starting to dry up.

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verifiedboomer t1_j9l08e0 wrote

And I think people sincerely overestimate the benefits of space manufacturing.

I also think people sincerely underestimate the challenges and expense involved in retrieving commercially useful amounts of material from asteroids, or of using those materials in situ for space-based manufacturing.

Achieving inexpensive launch capability with Starship, if possible, only scratches the surface of what needs to be in place to do any of this stuff.

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carso150 t1_j9l7w2b wrote

and i think some severly understimate just how long 30 years are, starship will more than certainly fly sometime this year and once it flies once you can expect that spacex will quickly develop and improve uppon the design, because even if it only scratches what is needed that slightly scratch is only step 1 and again, 30 years is a fucking long time a lot of stuff can and will change in 30 years far faster than many people expect

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random_shitter t1_j9m5u2g wrote

Have you ever watched Primitive Technology make some iron from ore? The guys who first made some iron didn't say "okay, now let's make an integrated steel mill". And we still ended up in today's world.

We're currently in the Primitive Technology phase of space mastery. But we don't need to jump straight to in-situ resource-utilised manufacturing. Each new capability unlocks a new way of making money. Each new way of making money pushes development of new capabilities.

First satellite 1957; first communications satellite 1960. Many steps since. More steps to go. But we are getting close to a tipping point. SpaceX is launching often enough to get good at it, making it routine. Space-based manufacturing research is at the point that they see viable products at the horizon. Either StarShip or competitors will drive launch costs further down. There will be a point where these lines cross, and the floodgates will open.

I don't think I will live to see the space equivalent of an integrated steel mill, but I do think space will touch my life in more ways than only through communications and remote sensing.

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Villad_rock t1_j9l7xdw wrote

In 50-100 years everything will most likely be ai and robots driven and money doesn’t exist anymore. Humans will just have fun and watch everything unfolding. At that point space exploration is as simple as driving to the next store.

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