and i think some severly understimate just how long 30 years are, starship will more than certainly fly sometime this year and once it flies once you can expect that spacex will quickly develop and improve uppon the design, because even if it only scratches what is needed that slightly scratch is only step 1 and again, 30 years is a fucking long time a lot of stuff can and will change in 30 years far faster than many people expect

Have you ever watched Primitive Technology make some iron from ore? The guys who first made some iron didn't say "okay, now let's make an integrated steel mill". And we still ended up in today's world.

We're currently in the Primitive Technology phase of space mastery. But we don't need to jump straight to in-situ resource-utilised manufacturing. Each new capability unlocks a new way of making money. Each new way of making money pushes development of new capabilities.

First satellite 1957; first communications satellite 1960. Many steps since. More steps to go. But we are getting close to a tipping point. SpaceX is launching often enough to get good at it, making it routine. Space-based manufacturing research is at the point that they see viable products at the horizon. Either StarShip or competitors will drive launch costs further down. There will be a point where these lines cross, and the floodgates will open.

I don't think I will live to see the space equivalent of an integrated steel mill, but I do think space will touch my life in more ways than only through communications and remote sensing.

In 50-100 years everything will most likely be ai and robots driven and money doesn’t exist anymore. Humans will just have fun and watch everything unfolding. At that point space exploration is as simple as driving to the next store.